Sunday, May 16, 2010

Lebron James on the Clock

Lebron James' 2009-2010 season has come to a close and the questions about where he will be next season have already begun swarming. Everyone is speculating about what he will do as a free agent, whether he will stay in Cleveland or if he will leave and where. I have heard every single thing he has said scrutinized and every possibility analyzed. Among the analysis are several intriguing points and several stupid guesses. I figured I should try to clarify the possibilities and add my own guess as to what he will do.

Quick note: What I write that he is thinking and where I think he will go are total guesses. I could be way off because I have no idea what Lebron is thinking, but the fact of the matter is that none of the big analysts do either. All the guesses I have heard are just guesses because Lebron has been pretty tight lipped on his intentions so I cannot be more wrong than everybody else.

I believe there will be two things Lebron looks for when trying to decide where to go. The first and most important thing is that he wants to win a championship. This is the most important thing on his mind. He has been in the league for seven seasons and still has yet to win. The second thing that makes this more tricky is that I believe he wants to help resurrect a franchise and then lead them to a championship. This sounds odd, but bear with me. Part of Michael Jordan's legacy is that he took a team with nothing, the Chicago Bulls, and turned them into a dynasty. Kevin Garnett went to a terrible Boston team with a proud past and won a championship. For someone of Lebron's caliber, I do not think he wants to simply join a playoff caliber team to get them over the hump, he wants to resurrect a franchise and build his own dynasty. Cleveland was initially a perfect fit because he was offered that chance.

Cleveland still remains a great fit for him for several reasons. Lebron grew up in Akron so this is his home town team. He loves staying at home, he loves visiting his old school and his old gym, and he clearly wants to win in Cleveland. He has still yet to deliver the ultimate prize to the Cavaliers and many think that to leave now is to admit defeat and will tarnish his legacy. Also, after years of letting Lebron carry the team on his shoulders, owner Dan Gilbert has finally shown that he is committed to bringing a championship team together. Over the last few seasons Cleveland began acquiring big name players for a championship run including Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal, and Antawn Jamison. As Lebron's current team, Cleveland can offer Lebron more money than any other team. Knowing that the future of this franchise is tied heavily to Lebron, Gilbert is going to do whatever it takes to keep him around.

While it will be hard to leave his home, I think Lebron will be gone. Money is not going to really factor into his decision. No one is going to be dumb enough to try and lowball him and he will get a big contract no matter where he goes. I just think Lebron is frustrated with Cleveland. Yes, they have done more in the past two seasons to win a championship then they did before, but it still is not working. Second round exits are not what he was expecting. At this point with a strong team around him he will probably look to the coach as the missing piece of the puzzle. Mike Brown was badly out-coached by Doc Rivers and last season by Stan Van Gundy. I believe Brown will be fired but it will be too little too late. Even with a strong team around him, Lebron still needs to carry them. Every once in a while, Kobe Bryant has a bad game but the Lakers' team around him can still steal a game. Cleveland falls apart without Lebron.

The key to Lebron's decision is Kevin Garnett. Look at what he has done with his career. Garnett was drafted by Minnesota in 1995 and played there for 12 years. He was never able to win a championship and then finally signed with Boston in 2007. He came in with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and this trio was able to build a proud franchise back up and win a championship in 2008. While Garnett teamed up with two other superstars, he was still seen as the key guy. Also, and most importantly, no one talks about Minnesota as a failure. What people remember is the success he has had in Boston. The mold has been set. Team up with superstars and resurrect a proud franchise. Success in the end, is what matters. Essentially, the only way for Cleveland to keep Lebron is to fire Brown and bring in one of the other several free agent superstars available, but that might not be enough for a frustrated James.

So what would he do and where would he go? If he truly is frustrated with Cleveland, what he will do is start talking with another free agent. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemaire, and Dirk Nowitzki are all available. He will talk with a superstar and make plans to join the same team. As for where he would go, there are many guesses but the leading candidates seem to be New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, or Los Angeles (Clippers). You can go ahead and throw Los Angeles out of the mix. No one says, "I want to win a championship, I'm going to be a Clipper!" LA was not the worst team last season, but the stigma of the Clippers still hangs over the team. Imagine if Adrian Peterson left Minnesota to become a Detroit Lion. Even the Kobe/Lebron rivalry possibility would not be enough to bring in Lebron.

A lot of people see Chicago as a likely possibility because they are already a playoff team and have the best chance of winning a championship quickly. If Lebron truly feels that coaching is what's missing in Cleveland, he is not going to go to Chicago where they have no coach. Also, while he does want a championship he is still 25. He still wants to build a team and still has time to do it. This takes both Chicago and Miami off the list. Miami won a championship behind Wade and was the fifth ranked team in the playoffs this season. If he still has not won by the time he is 30 he may consider going to a playoff team, but I do not think he is that desperate yet.

This leaves New York and New Jersey. How do such lousy teams make sense? New Jersey is a contender because they can win the draft lottery. Bringing in Lebron, Bosh, and John Wall (probable first overall pick) changes the team completely. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov is also a big spender who will do what it takes to make New Jersey a contender. The major contender, however, is New York. The Knicks already have coach Mike D'Antoni, a well respected NBA coach who was a constant contender in the west with Phoenix. Of all the coaches of all the teams Lebron is considering at the moment, he is the best. Cleveland will need to find someone as notable as D'Antoni to have any chance. Heading to New York, the market, the city, and the franchise will certainly be enticing. Mix in the head coach and the second superstar that Lebron would want to bring with him, and you already have a brand new New York team with the money to bring in whoever else the team may be missing. New York offers a big city, a big market, a good coach, and a franchise to build. All of these are things Lebron James will be looking for.

Of all the possibilities, New York makes the most sense. Of course, should New Jersey win the draft lottery, you cannot count them out. I believe both are more likely than Lebron staying in Cleveland. Of course, free agency does not start until July 1 so we will have to wait and see, assuming we can stomach the ridiculous amount of media attention that will follow his every move for the next two months.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Donovan McNabb Continues Trying to Build the Redskins

Former Eagles' running back Michael Westbrook just visited the Washington Redskins and is now headed to Denver for another team visit. Westbrook was invited at the behest of his former teammate Donovan McNabb, the newly acquired Redskins' quarterback. Despite the fact that the Redskins have already signed Larry Johnson and Willie Parker this offseason to backup Clinton Portis, McNabb thought Westbrook would be just a super fit. Mr. McNabb, with respect, please focus on throwing the football and let the front office worry about what players to sign.

Since coming to the team, McNabb has suggested bringing in loudmouth wide receiver Terrell Owens and now Michael Westbrook. Now I understand that McNabb was brought in to be a vocal team leader, that I have no problem with. As a prominent leader and acquisition for the team, the Redskins cannot simply discount the suggestions he makes, but the reality is that McNabb has not played a single game for the Redskins and his suggestions stink.

As soon as I heard McNabb talking about Owens I was terrified. If there was any owner in the league that would over pay a controversial wide receiver who constantly drops the ball and struggles to make an impact it would of course be Daniel Snyder. While Owens clearly has talent, he expects to receive a superstar contract and the offense to revolve around him. At this point in his career Owens is a number two receiver and deserves a comparable contract. He will never accept that and so he finds himself currently out of a job. Snyder has a history of overpaying big name players (Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth, etc) and so I thought this might happen. Luckily the team came out and said they had no interest.

McNabb, however, is talking again! To be fair, I thought Westbrook would be a great acquisition when the offseason began. Portis is getting older and the team needed a more reliable backup than Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright. I think Portis is still good enough to be a great running back in the league, but last season made it clear he needed another running back to handle some of the offensive load and take some of the pressure off. Westbrooks' injury concerns are what led him to be cut by Philadelphia and I think his future in the league will be as the number two running back. This made him a great fit for the Redskins. Now he's not. The team should be dismissing this as quickly as they did with Owens, not inviting him to visit. Washington's need for a running back ended when the team signed both Johnson and Parker. Both will contribute, both will make an immediate impact, both have already signed, and both will struggle for as many carries as they feel they should be getting. Both of these players are former starters who were let go by their former teams. Sometimes starters can struggle accepting reduced roles. I expect that by the end of the season, between Portis, Johnson, and Parker, one of them will be unhappy believing their talents are not being fully utilized. Now you're talking about bringing in a fourth running back? This makes no sense.

McNabb was signed after Johnson and Parker. He knows he has three backs ready to play and he is still talking about Westbrook. What does this say about the confidence he has in the running backs? What must Johnson and Parker be thinking now that McNabb is talking about bringing in another guy? I understand trying to help out a friend, but McNabb has been a Redskin for about a month. He has not played a single game. He is also on a team with a new head coach and new general manager. The Redskins do not need McNabb talking about who he thinks they should bring in.

Because McNabb is a quarterback and very talented, he is constantly interviewed and what he says quickly becomes very public and teams have to take note. I hope that the Redskins brought in Westbrook just out of respect for McNabb and are not seriously considering signing him. If they do, the Redskins will have two or three upset running backs by the end of the season thanks to a quarterback who has yet to prove himself in DC.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Nationals' Pitching Reevaluated

Thirty games into the 2010 baseball season and the Washington Nationals find themselves above .500. The last time the team was above .500 was five games into the 2008 season when they went 3-2. The recent success of the team has to be credited with the tremendous pitching they have received so far this season. After a slow start, this Nationals' bullpen looks very good.

There are of course a few players struggling early on. One of the team's big signings in the offseason was starter Jason Marquis, who has been nothing short of terrible so far this season. In three starts he has only lasted 8.1 innings and has three losses and a staggering 20.52 ERA. Now he is currently on the disabled list with "floating bodies in the elbow." Three games does not a bust make, but I do not think these are the numbers the team had in mind when they signed him. Ace John Lannan has also struggled somewhat this season with a 6.34 ERA through six starts, posting only two quality starts.

Still, there are several bright spots on this new Nationals' team. Scott Olsen put together an impressive game on Thursday against Atlanta, holding a no-hitter until the eighth inning. Reliever Tyler Clippard has five wins which is currently tied for second in the league, Livan Hernandez has the second best ERA among all starters with a 0.99 trailing only Ubaldo Jimenez who many believe is the leading Cy Young Candidate, and closer Matt Capps has 12 saves which leads all of MLB. And of course, one cannot forget this team still has Stephen Strasburg in the mix. Strasburg made the jump to AAA this week and in his first start allowed one hit in six innings.

No doubt everyone will be keeping an eye on him to see if he continues playing well at the AAA level, but the real question right now is are the Nationals actually poised to challenge for the wild card? It may be too early to start thinking about that, but when the team has lost 100 games the past two seasons, having an above .500 record 30 games in is definitely a hopeful sign that the team is finally turning things around. In order to continue winning, however, the Nationals will need to continue getting strong performances from their surprising bullpen.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Offseason Questions for the Capitals

The Washington Capitals find themselves cleaning out their lockers and heading into the offseason much earlier than they would have hoped this year. Now they face the numerous questions regarding coaches, free agents, and how they expect to go farther in the playoffs next season. Here are the most important questions facing this team in the offseason.

Coach: In the wake of their improbable first round upset, management hinted that changes would be coming this offseason. Immediately, people assumed this meant head coach Bruce Boudreau. Owner Ted Leonsis and general manager George McPhee have already put those rumors to rest. "He's a really good coach," McPhee said, "He's going to be here a really long time. No need to raise those issues because he's not going anywhere." Talking about coaching changes are certainly premature at this point, but if the Caps have an early exit next season it will be an option that is at least discussed.

Nicklas Backstrom: The biggest priority for the Caps heading into the offseason is Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom's entry level contract expired at the end of this season and he is now a restricted free agent. Backstrom seems happy in Washington and has never indicated he is considering going elsewhere, and as the Caps have the right to make him an offer I expect they will do whatever it takes to keep him. I would be surprised if signing him is a major issue, but what the Caps have to pay him will be. Make no mistake, they will pay him what he wants. The problem is that his previous contract was entry level and since then he has established himself as a superstar. Signing him now is going to cost a significant amount of money and this could impact who the Caps try to sign when free agency begins. Listed below are the other restricted and unrestricted free agents on the Caps' roster:

Restricted- Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Fleischmann, Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Jeff Schultz, Michal Neuvirth
Unrestricted- Brendan Morrison, Scott Walker, Quintin Laing, Eric Belanger, Alexandre Giroux, Boyd Kane, Kyle Wilson, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, Joe Corvo, Jose Theodore

Goalies: The big name here of course is Jose Theodore, who I am not expecting the Caps to sign. While he has been a tremendous asset to the team and has put together two impressive regular seasons, he has not been a reliable playoff goalie. Twice he has gone in as the starter and failed both times to last two full games. Boudreau told reporters prior to the series against Montreal that Theodore would not have a short leash this season and he was still pulled early in game two. While confidence in him is not high, Boudreau has shown a lot of confidence in young Michal Neuvirth. When Varlamov went down with injury in the regular season, it was expected that Theodore would take over as the primary goalie. Boudreau, however, started Neuvirth in 16 games. He will be a major priority for the team to sign this summer. Theodore will walk and the money the team will save from his contract will go to Backstrom.

Defense: Defense really needs to be a focus for the Caps this offseason. They were ranked 1st offensively and 16th defensively. More importantly they were ranked 25th on the penalty kill. As good as they were, the Caps had to play from behind constantly this season. While they were able to overcome numerous deficits in the regular season, it really hurt them in the playoffs. The first thing the team needs to do is talk to Mike Green. Last year he was widely criticized for his lack of conditioning in the playoffs and he spent the entire offseason trying to get in better shape. Now he needs to work on his defensive game. It is the only thing holding him back, but it is a serious problem since he is a DEFENSEman. His offensive skill does not excuse his poor defensive play. Regarding the team's free agents, they will not allow Jeff Schultz, who won the plus-minus award this season and seems to be finally coming into his own, to leave. They will also attempt to re-sign Shaone Morrisonn, one of the few defensive minded defensemenon the team. Milan Jurcina will not be back. As the team already traded him once, I do not think there will be much urgency to sign him again, especially with the emergence of Jon Carlson. Joe Corvo looked tremendous in the postseason, but signing him will be expensive and my guess would be that the team let's him go. My biggest fear regarding defense will be that the team decides to rely solely on the emergence of Carlson, Tyler Sloan, and Karl Alzner and do not attempt to sign a more defensive player. If they cannot sign Shaone Morrisonn, then they MUST sign a defensive minded defenseman to help the Caps keep the puck out of the net.

Forwards: The biggest question besides Nicklas Backstrom is not actually a free agent, but is Alexander Semin. Semin's contract was set to expire at the end of this season, but he signed a one year extension. Semin has the talent to be a top line left winger on most NHL teams, but happens to be on the same team as the best left winger in the world. Being that talented, he will expect a large contract. With the other superstars on the team, he might be just too expensive. Now that the team is fully focused on building for the playoffs, Semin's failure to produce in the postseason makes him expendable. The fact that he only signed for an extra year tells me the writing is on the wall and he will part ways with the Caps after the 2010-11 season. The Caps will not allow a player of Semin's calibur to leave without getting something in return and I will expect an offseason or a deadline trade. If the team acquires a notable left wing this summer, then Semin's tenure in DC will end sometime soon. More likely, however, is that the team will wait until the trade deadline to deal Semin when teams are more desperate for scoring talent. I felt Brendan Morrison was a fantastic free agent signing last summer and will be sorry to see him leave, but the Caps will not pursue him this offseason. Morrison is a second line caliber forward, but was a healthy scratch frequently in the regular season and twice in the team's seven playoff games. This tells me that the team will not sign him and signing Eric Belanger will become very important. He seems to enjoy playing in DC, saying after the team's improbable comeback against Chicago "We didn't do that in Minnesota" so my guess would be that he will be back in DC.

The Caps will try desperately to trade Michael Nylander again, but I doubt any team will be willing to pick up his large contract. Lending him out so that he does not contribute to the salary cap as they did this year is the most likely scenario for 2010-11 which is the last year of his contract. Boyd Kane is 31 and unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level, so unless the team wants to sign him for Hershey, he will be gone. The team is likely to sign Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, and Tomas Fleischmann, especially Fehr after his breakout season this year and these players seem unlikely to go anywhere else. Scott Walker was a deadline deal and I expect the Caps will not pursue him unless they want him to replace Jon Erskine (fingers crossed) as the team's fighter. As for the rest, the Caps will definitely want to sign Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, and Kyle Wilson. The only one I think could leave would be Giroux who has become an AHL superstar. Signing a big contract to 28 year old minor league player who rarely gets called up to Washington is not the direction the team will want to go in. Either he accepts a minor league, low contract, or he'll have to find himself another team.

Likely Lineup: I expect most of the free agents on the Caps' current roster that they pursue will sign with Washington again. A championship contender offering a chance to play with the best player in the world makes recruiting a lot easier, especially when most of these players developed in Hershey and Washington together. As for bringing in players, my best guess is that the team will pursue a center to replace Brendan Morrison and to help on the penalty kill, a left wing to replace Semin and provide an offensive threat both in the regular season and the playoffs, and a defenseman because even the Caps cannot ignore their defensive woes this season (I hope). If they are about to hand the reins over to Varlamov and Neuvirth, they will need will more help on the blue line. Unless the team expects Karl Alzner to turn into Chris Pronger this offseason, a defensive minded defenseman is a must. So here is my projected lineup for October without specific guesses as to what free agents the Caps bring in:

1st line: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble
2nd line: Semin (gone by trade deadline), Morrison's replacement, Laich
3rd line: Semin's replacement, Belanger, Fehr
4th line: Chimera, Steckle, Fleischmann

Defense Pairings: Green and Schultz, Carlson and Poti, Morrisonn and Sloan or Corvo's replacement (hopefully)

Goalies: Varlamov, Neuvirth

Other Roster Players: Bradley, Gordon, Laing, Erskine, Alzner

Friday, April 30, 2010

Sometimes I Hate Being Right, Game 7 and Series Reaction

I may not have been right about game 7, which I thought the Caps would win, but I was definitely right about the importance of game 1 and 2. Before the series began I said that if Washington lost either game 1 or 2 they would not challenge for the Cup this year. I was not expecting to be that right, but I was right. The reason I said that is because the Capitals were the best team in the league and Montreal was the worst team in the playoffs in either conference. Sometimes top seeds lose at home to bottom seeds, but in a series with a team that has been so dominant this could not be the case. If the Caps could not win their first two games at home against such an outmatched opponent, then I felt they were not mentally prepared for a deep playoff run. They lost game 1 and now find themselves out in the first round. I'm not trying to take anything away from what Montreal accomplished, it was a tremendous upset, but if the Capitals were firing on all cylinders and playing to their full potential then this never would have happened. Montreal just doesn't stack up.

What this series also showed was the importance of finishing a team off when you have the chance. Montreal had their backs against the ropes in game 5 and neither team played particularly well. The third period was especially terrible as the Caps played with zero sense of urgency, knowing they still had a game 6 and 7 to close it out. Game 5 should have been an easy win. Had they stepped up, we would be talking about game 1 against Philadelphia right now instead of wondering what if.

Jaroslav Halak, of course, played incredible...for two games. People should study this series as an example of why you win when you have the chance. The Caps didn't seem to have any trouble with Halak in the beginning of the series as he was pulled in game 3 and did not even play in game 4. He only got hot in game 6 and 7. When goalies gain confidence, they can go on these kind of streaks even if the goalie himself is not a superstar talent. I'm not saying Halak is not a great goalie, I'm just merely pointing out that sometimes goalies can overachieve in the playoffs and then fall off next season (anybody remember JS Gigeure?). Whether Halak can continue playing at this level remains to be seen.

Game 7 itself got off to a great start. Again, as in game 6, the Caps came out and dominated the play. Alexander Semin had a great opportunity in the first period to take the lead and end his scoreless streak. In a 3 on 1 opportunity Brooks Laich skated on the left and chipped it over to Semin passed a helpless Halak. Semin had an empty net and tried to deflect the pass in, but it hit the post. Frustrating, but it still semmed as if the Caps were in control until late in the period when Mike Green stepped in. Now I like Green, he has superstar talent. This postseason, however, he has been the worst player on the team. Some will argue that Semin was worse, but Semin was not detracting from the team in his frustration. He led the league in shots in the postseason and it really seemed like it was only a matter of time before he put one in. The bounces just were not going his way. Green was clearly frustrated with his inability to score and it really affected his play. He was widely criticized after game 2 when he was directly responsible for 2 of Montreal's 5 goals. His poor defensive play really affected the team. His frustration also put him into penalty trouble as he had 6 penalties in the series including 2 in game 7.

Towards the end of the first period during 4 on 4 play, Green had the puck and skated into the offensive zone. He lost the puck and it trickled to his right. Standing in front of him away from the puck was defenseman Andrei Markov. Instead of going directly for the puck Green skated forward, cross checked Markov, then turned and got the puck. It was an obvious penalty and a big time mistake. Montreal's offense is at its best when its on the powerplay and a 4 on 3 penalty gave them a lot of room to work with. Marc-Andre Bergeron made the Caps pay and Washington went into the locker room down 0-1 after dominating the period. In the third period Montreal dumped the puck into the Caps' zone. Green was the closest man to it, but did not seem to be in much of a hurry to grab the puck. Seeing that Green was taking his time, Hal Gill sprinted after it, beat him there, and chipped it behind Green to a waiting Dominic Moore who beat a helpless Semyon Varlamov to give Montreal a 2-0 lead. This was an easy mistake to avoid and one the Caps could not afford.

While Green remains one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, his defensive play constantly comes into question. It has kept him out of the all star game, off the Canadian Olympic team, and has cost him a Norris trophy. The fact that he puts so many points on the board shows me he has great offensive instincts. He knows where the puck is going and where he needs to be. He has yet to translate those instincts to his defensive play. If he knows where he needs to be to score, he should know where the opposing forwards are going to go. Being a defenseman, he needs to be thinking defense first, offense second. It was clear, however, that his lack of offense was weighing heavily on his mind and it really took away from his defensive play.

The most frustrating moment, perhaps of the series, came early into the third period. About 30 seconds in, Ovechkin finally managed to put one past Halak and tie the game. The goal, however, was immediately waved off by the referee who determined that Mike Knuble had interfered with Halak. Later on in the period, Montreal also had a goal waved off so it balanced out, right? Wrong. While I may be a die hard Caps fan, let me try to explain this as objectively as possible. The official rule on goalie interference according to nhl.com is "Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper's ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goaltender, inside or outside of his goal crease." So to be clear, players are allowed in the crease and contact itself does not necessarily constitute a goal being disallowed. In the Caps' goal, Knuble was in the crease next to Halak. He stood shoulder to shoulder with him (contact), Ovechkin shot, Halak went down in his stance in an attempt to block the shot, and it got passed him. Knuble's contact in no way impaired Halaks ability to defend the goal. It may have looked like Knuble's contact knocked him down, but he went down in an attempt to save the shot. Even if you felt Knuble's contact was illegal, which it was not, at best it was a 50/50 call. This is the third period in game 7 of a playoff series. You do not make game changing calls off of a 50/50 call that late in a game 7. There is no call for the "Bush Push" and there's no push off foul on Michael Jordan. Likewise, you do not disallow a goal in the third period of a game 7 because of a 50/50 call.

As for Montreal's disallowed goal, Varlamov had the puck, it was not visible, and the Montreal forward raised both arms and literally pushed Varlamov into the net. Sounds like "deliberate contact with the goaltender" to me. Watch the replay, no one could argue that it was not a deliberate push into the net. Had Ovechkin's goal been allowed, 30 seconds into the third period the score would have been tied at 1. This was a huge game changing decision, it was incorrect, and disallowing a Montreal goal that was clearly illegal does not compensate for such a terrible call.

Now, in the aftermath of a terrible upset, it's not time get drastic. Of course we are going to hear all sorts of criticism against Ovechkin and negative comparisons to Crosby and the Penguins, but let's keep things in perspective. I've already heard several criticisms against Ovechkin and the fact that he's a terrible leader and that's why the team is out. This is completely unfair. First, off, do not site the Olympics. From what I saw from team Russia, they were completely mismanaged by their coach. Just a quick example, Ovechkin played cleanup during powerplays, meaning he played in the center to screen the goalie and catch rebounds. This is a complete waste of his talent as he has the best shot in the world and you have him chipping in rebounds which any player can do. That's just a quick example, I could go on for days about why Russia's coach was laughably awful so the fact that Russia did not win a medal is more a result of their coach's terrilbe management more than it is a reflection of Ovechkin's leadership. The fact is that Ovechkin was named captain midseason and now people are using this as an excuse for the team's early exit. No one seemed to be question him in the regular season when he led the Caps to the best record in franchise history. While I will be the first one to say the Caps should have made it farther in the playoffs, to blame it on Ovechkin's leadership is unfair, especially when he was thrust the captaincy mid season with the unexpected trade of Chris Clark.

Also, to characterize Ovechkin as a Tracy McGrady or the Capitals as the next San Jose Sharks is a bit premature. While the last three postseason performances have been underwhelming, people are forgetting just how young this team is. Backstrom is 22, Eric Fehr is 24, Tomas Fleischmann is 25, Ovechkin is 24, Green is 24, Jeff Schultz is 24, and Varlamov just turned 22. Two years ago, I felt that while the Caps had home ice, Philadelphia was actually the favorite. Last season, we saw a huge rebound to defeat New York and make it to round 2. Yes with each year the expectations are raised as they should be and the Caps did not live up to those expectations this year, but this is a young team and this will be an experience that will help them in the future.

What does this series mean for the future? It really shows why the Caps need a defensive star. Granted, at the trade deadline they picked up Joe Corvo, who was fantastic in the playoffs, and Milan Jurcina, who had a sports hernia and has yet to play a game with the Caps since his return. Jon Carlson was one of the best players for the Caps in the series and looks to be a regular next season and Mike Green will undoubtedly rebound. The problem is that Corvo, Carlson, and Green are all offensive minded defensemen. The Caps' philosophy this season has been to outscore the opponent, not keep them off the board. As a result the team found themselves playing from behind a lot more often than they should have. Perhaps the game of the year was the 3 goal comeback against Pittsburgh on Super Bowl Sunday in which the Caps scored 4 straight to beat their hated rivals in OT 5-4. This kind of thing seemed to happen a lot to the Caps this season and as they kept winning, they began to develop bad habits. The Caps were either tied or losing at the end of the first period in EVERY game in the Montreal series. Coming from behind is MUCH harder in the playoffs as we all saw. The Caps also allowed a powerplay goal in 6 of the 7 games. Allowing a powerplay goal every game is not acceptable. Carlson and Karl Alzner do not provide a reasonable excuse to ignore the blue line this summer.

Finally, this series has given the Caps an important lesson in playoff hockey. The past two season have taught the Caps why it's important to start strong and this season is a lesson in finishing strong. It also is a blatant reminder of how much different playoff hockey is than regular season hockey. All important lessons for this team to keep in mind for next season's playoff push.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Capitals Forced Into Yet Another Game 7

For the fourth time in three years, the Washington Capitals will need a game 7 to finish off their playoff series. Two years ago the Capitals saw their season end with a game 7 loss to Philadelphia. Last season, the Capitals fought back from a 3-1 series deficit to force game 7 and beat the New York Rangers before losing to Pittsburgh in another game 7 in the conference semifinals. Now, despite being the most dominate NHL team in recent memory, the Capitals were not able to end their series against Montreal in games 5 or 6 and will face a winner-take-all situation tonight at the Verizon Center.

The series has been up and down throughout with Washington dropping game 1 and needing a miraculous comeback to win game 2. They then dominated games 3 and 4 to take a 3-1 series lead, but failed to close out with a lackluster performance in game 5. Despite what people may think about game 6, it was one of the best games played by the Caps so far this postseason. The Capitals completely dominated the game shooting a franchise postseason record 53 shots. There were just 3 big problems. One, goalie Semyon Varlamov did not look great, letting in two soft goals; two, the Caps powerplay continued to fizzle going 0 for 6 on the powerplay, including a 2 man advantage in the first period when the score was only 0-2; and third and most importantly, goalie Jaroslav Halak had a performance that would make Patrick Roy gasp. Despite such a great team effort, Washington found themselves on the wrong side of a 1-4 loss and now head home for game 7 wondering what happened and how they are going to beat Halak.

To add to the Caps' problems, one of their best defensemen so far this postseason will not be playing. Tom Poti suffered an eye injury in game 6 and will be out not only for tonight, but for most of the second round should the Caps advance. Tyler Sloan will likely take his place as he stepped up in the two games Shaone Morrisonn sat out with an injury, but the Caps did recall Karl Alzner from Hershey and head coach Bruce Boudreau hinted that he would not be afraid to play him despite tonight's high stakes. There is also some question over whether Boudreau will dress Brendan Morrisonn after sitting him out for game 6, but Boudreau has always been impressed with David Steckle's ability to step up in key situations such as when he scored the overtime winner against Pittsburgh last season to force a game 7. Otherwise Washington's lineup seems set. Some may be asking about a possible goalie change, but this is unlikely. While Varlamov did not look particularly good in game 6, the Caps have had more postseason consistency from him than from Jose Theodore and it is unlikely Boudreau would take such a huge gamble.

So is it time to panic in DC? Not just yet. For one, the Caps are used to game 7s and the added pressure most likely won't affect them. Game 7s are a time superstars step forward and the Caps have plenty to choose from between the best player in the world in Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Knuble. Montreal also can't ignore Mike Green and Alex Semin, even though both have yet to score in the series.

The key to winning tonight for Washington is solving Halak. The last two games, Montreal has ridden on his back and if the Caps can shake him up, they'll shake the entire Canadiens' team. The Caps came in ready to go on Monday and I would expect a similar performance tonight with a barrage of shots against Halak. While he has allowed only 2 goals in the past 2 games, I really doubt he can do it again. The Caps showed on Monday what kind of a performance it would take to beat them and Halak was up to the task then, but it would be difficult for any goalie in the league to follow it up with an equally spectacular performance. Yet, this may be the only way Montreal can win. The Caps will have to come out of the gate swinging and will hopefully put one or two into the net early in the game. For this to happen, the powerplay MUST be better. The Caps will get their chances, but they have to capitalize. So far what wasthe best powerplay team in the league has scored once this series. Once. Even with all the talent they have they have only managed one powerplay goal. This is really unacceptable. Montreal has not been able to stay out of the box this series and the Capitals have yet to make them pay. They will really need the powerplay to be working tonight.

Varlamov will also have to be solid. While I believe most of Montreal's chances rest on Halak, even when the Caps have managed to solve the goalies this series, Montreal seems to respond with its own offense. Since Halak has played so well the past 2 games, Montreal will have to be careful not to rely only on their goaltender and will have to make their own offensive push. Varlamov cannot allow any easy goals that will pressure his team. Still tonight I think the Caps will need Varlamov to not lose the game more than they will need him to win it.

The biggest key for the Caps is not to get frustrated. Towards the end of game 6, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, and Green, were missing the net altogether, even from very close. What this means is that they were thinking too hard about shooting the perfect shot. When a goalie gets hot, players begin to think too much about how and where to shoot. The Caps can beat Halak if they screen him, deflect shots, and get to rebounds. They were not doing this at all in game 5 and abandoned this early in game 6 after Halak frustrated their efforts. Get back to the basics and they will get the puck past him.

It is certainly not time to panic for the Washington Capitals, but the problem with a game 7 is that it is winner take all. If Halak has another spectacular game, the bounces don't go the Caps' way, Varlamov has a bad game, or the referees call a bad game, the Caps are out. If the Caps had played a full game 5, they would not be looking at a hot goalie while facing elimination. One thing to watch for tonight is how the referees call the game. Montreal has a weak offense and a strong powerplay and have tried to agitate and draw penalties all series long. Apparently they tried a little too hard on Monday and were called for an unprecedented 3 unsportsmanlike penalties for diving. Maybe this was something discussed with the referees before hand, maybe it was just a bad game for Montreal. Either way it will be interesting to see if the referees call the Caps a little tighter tonight or if they put away the whistles for such a crucial game. You can expect Montreal coach Jacques Martin will be in both referees' ears tonight even before the game starts. The Caps will have to be careful to stay out of the box.

Tonight should be a good one, especially if the Caps win and move on to the semifinals. I know I'd rather be watching Caps and Flyers this weekend instead of the Nationals and the Marlins.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Not Enough for the Redskins

After wrapping up the draft last weekend, the Redskins appear to have achieved a complete transformation from their 2009 team. They now head into the summer with a new general manager, head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, new quarterback, and many new players as they attempt to rebound from a dismal 4-12 season. The Redskins, however, have barley addressed their offensive line. This was by far their biggest weakness from last season and, while they have made some changes, it will take more to fix a line that allowed their quarterback to be hit 97 times and sacked 46 times.

Heading into the offseason, the Redskins seemed committed to changing their ways and developing a team rather than just bringing in big name players. They then proceeded to bring in big name players and ignore the offensive line. To add depth on offense, the Redskins signed running backs Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. This will allow some rushing flexibility for a team that seemed lost whenever Clinton Portis went out with an injury. Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright, and Quinton Ganther performed admirably in relief, but just did not provide much of a threat.

Of course the biggest moves came at quarterback. The Redskins looked ready to give Jason Campbell a short leash this season replacing backup Todd Collins with Rex Grossman, but then shocked the NFL with a trade for Donovan McNabb. While many questioned this move, I felt it was a welcome change. Yes, I have always been vocal in my criticism of Campbell, but the move allowed for the Redskins to focus squarely on the offensive line during the draft. Without trading for McNabb, the Redskins most likely would have had to take quarterback Jimmy Clausen with their first round pick. While we know now that Clausen fell considerably in the draft going midway in the second round, it is unlikely the Redskins would have risked losing him. This would mean not getting an lineman until the beginning of the second round, the best of which available was Zane Beadles from Utah, who in his four years at Utah played primarily from a two point stance. This was not a player you could guarantee would be ready to start in the NFL right away. With McNabb, the Redskins were free to draft Trent Williams who will be a starter come week 1 against the Cowboys.

By now, no doubt, you've heard the questions surrounding the decision to take Williams over Russell Okung, who many thought was the safer pick, but Williams made a lot more sense for the scheme Mike Shanahan wants to run. This is not the problem I have. In a recent interview, Chris Foerster, new offensive line coach for the team, gave his projected starting line: LT Trent Williams, LG Derrick Dockery, C Casey Rabach, RG Mike Williams, and RT Artis Hicks. Looking at this lineup have the Redskins really done enough to fix the problems on the offensive line? Trent Williams replaces the now retired Chris Samuels, the best lineman the Redskins had. Artis Hicks comes from Minnesota to take over the right tackle position and Mike Williams is switching over to right guard. Otherwise, we see a very similar offensive line. The Redskins have a rookie playing in place of their best player, a solid lineman from Minnesota, and three starters from last season. Is that really enough?

The offensive line was a huge factor last season, but with McNabb it could prove disastrous. The constant pressure on the quarterback really hurt Campbell's performance. Granted, McNabb is a much better quarterback, but he is also injury prone. Injuries have plagued him his entire career. I may not have liked Campbell, but the man could take a beating. McNabb is more mobile, but he can't take nearly the same pounding Campbell took last season or he'll be out really quickly. Isn't bringing in one seasoned veteran and one rookie starter to replace your best player and to fix the offensive line like trying to fix the Titanic with duct tape? What good is a new offense if you can't protect it? I sure hope Shanahan has a few tricks up his sleeve.