Expanding March Madness Part 2

Two rounds deep into the March Madness tournament, and the debate to expand the tournament is heating up. Because of unthinkable upsets like Northern Iowa over top seeded Kansas, St. Mary's over number two Villanova, and Cornell over both Temple and Wisconsin, support for adding more teams into the fold is gaining. If those lower seeds can compete and win, why not add them in?

Another argument points to the exclusivity of college basketball. A 65 team tournament allows approximately 19% of division one teams into the postseason. This is lower than the playoffs of the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL. To raise this would not really be opening the flood gates when college basketball is the most exclusive sport in America.

These are impressive arguments, but if you look at this tournament there are other important numbers you should take into account as well. Here is the breakdown of how many teams made the tournament from the major conferences: 6 out of 12 from the ACC, 6 out of 12 Big 12 teams, 8 out of 16 Big East teams, 5 out of 11 Big 10 teams, 2 out of 10 Pac 10 teams, and 4 out of 12 SEC teams. Clearly an off year for the Pac 10 who usually boasts major national competitors in UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona. For the most part, however, you have a little less than half of major conferences making the field, which is where you want it. Most ideas for expansion say 96 teams, so lets add the 32 teams from the NIT into this field. Now you have 9 out of 12 from the ACC, 7 out of 12 from the Big 12, 13 out of 16 from the Big East, 7 out of 11 from the Big 10, 3 out of 10 from the Pac 10, and 6 out of 12 from the SEC. While more of the mid majors will be in, this will allow far too many from the big conferences.

When talking about percentages, you are assuming a competitive level roughly equal across the league. Of course every sport has their "groups of death" and their weaker divisions (the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders in the same division?), but the level for professional teams is still relatively equal. That is just not true in college sports. The Big East isn't slightly better than the Big Sky, there's a huge gap. This doesn't mean teams from the Big Sky can't compete come March, we've all seen the upsets. What it does mean, however, is that any increase in the playoffs doesn't simply allow the mid majors more slots, it also gives more slots to the conferences that already have around half of their teams heading to the post season because of their high level of competition. Making the tournament for those teams ceases to be an accomplishment and becomes a necessity for coaches to keep their job, even more so than it is now. When 13 teams from the Big East are making the tournament, you better not be one of the 3 who aren't. March Madness will become what the bowl system is for college football; making it alone means very little, not making it at all means a lot.

When considering the percentages, keep in mind that while a 96 team tournament will have approximately 28% of division one teams playing, 62% of the big conference teams will be in, and that's based just on the numbers this season, it could be more. In the current 65 team set up, teams still have to earn their spot. To expand the tournament gives a huge advantage to all teams in the major conferences before the season even begins. North Carolina made the NIT with a 5-11 record in the ACC and a 19-16 overall. Texas Tech was 4-12 in the Big 12 and 19-16 overall. UConn was 7-11 in the Big East and as low as 19-16 overall. So for these teams it doesn't matter how bad you are in the conference as long as you are in one of those big conferences and stay above .500 overall. Deserving teams that are snubbed would be in, but it also dilutes the pool with teams like UConn who have a .542 win percentage. Is that really a deserving team?

Any expansion of the tournament would have to take into account the vast difference in competition among the conferences. Don't be fooled by the low overall percentages. This drag down the tournament with teams that really don't deserve to be there. Don't ruin the magic of the tournament by forcing in more possible "Cinderellas" or the clock may strike midnight on the excitement of March.

Expanding March Madness?

The Washington Post printed an interesting article talking about how many basketball enthusiasts want to see March Madness expanded. No doubt there are numerous brackets and systems people have created hoping that this will come to fruition. A larger bracket means more teams reaching the big stage who would otherwise not have much of a shot, such as William and Mary who will not make it unless they win the CAA tournament despite a great season with wins over Wake Forest and Maryland. The biggest reason, of course is money; more games means more money.

Before the NCAA runs to the bank, however, is this something that needs to happen? Why mess with success? College basketball does not suffer from the same problem as college football does. Everyone seems satisfied with the current system of deciding a national champion and while some people may have ideas of how they can make it better, there is no national movement to see this changed. If there is a criticism, it is the debate sparked by all the bubble teams that feel snubbed every year. Apart from the conference champions, there is no real system for deciding who gets an at large bid. Basically a bunch of people sit down and decide that team a is more deserving than team b for whatever reason. The diversity of the different teams and conferences as well as the random non conference scheduling really makes a definitive playoff system such as that which we see in pro sports impossible. Adding more slots will obviously allow for those bubble teams to comfortably make the tournament. This takes a lot of excitement from the push for March. It's a lot more exciting to see Notre Dame and Virginia Tech push themselves at the end of the season to hopefully get themselves across that threshold. Would people really tune in to watch William and Mary or Mercer push for that last 80th, 90th, or 100th spot? That would probably get about as much attention or even less than the play-in game between #64 and 65 currently does.

The more spots that are available, the less prestigious it is to earn one of those bids. The fact is that in a field of 65, it is huge for those mid major teams who win their conferences to make it to March madness. Those conference tournaments lose a lot of their luster and importance if multiple teams are already going to receive bids. That's why fans of the ACC or Big East are asking themselves why we have conference tournaments at all while fans of the CAA or Patriot League are watching every dribble. I understand the reasoning behind expanding the post season for many sports, but college basketball already has a 65 team playoff and every single team gets a chance to wipe the slate clean at the end of the season and qualify for March madness by winning their conference. To expand it any further would put more money in the pockets of those in charge but would decrease the importance of qualifying. That's not a fair trade in my book.

DC March Madness, Where do they Stand?

With the season winding down, teams all over the country are trying to get that last big win to make sure they'll have a spot in March Madness. Many DC fans are wondering who's in, who needs to pad their resume, and who should start recruiting early this year. This is where the local teams stand (in no particular order):

George Washington (15-11, 5-8) No chance. Usually a bubble team with anxious fans heading into march, it's back to the drawing board this year for the Colonials. After opening the season 4-0, this team has been average at best. It's only real notable win this season is Princeton and that's nothing to write home about. They have really struggled in conference play and I don't see any reason why that would end come tournament time. The Colonials won't challenge for the automatic Atlantic 10 bid.

Richmond (22-6, 11-2) They're in. A great conference record is not always good enough for these mid-major conferences, but Richmond has some non-conference wins to back it up. Wins against Florida and ODU are impressive and while Mississippi State and Missouri aren't great this year, wins like these show that Richmond can compete with the big boys. Even that sometimes isn't enough, but Richmond currently sits at number 24 in the rankings. Being ranked reflects the confidence selectors have in this team. If a team is good enough to be in the top 25, they are good enough to be in a tournament between the top 65. After a 17 point blowout of conference opponent temple, Richmond is my pick to win the A-10, but will receive a bid even if they don't.

Hampton (10-17, 6-8) and Howard (7-22, 6-8) Keep dreaming.

Maryland (20-7, 10-3) I love talking about Maryland because they are continually overrated by DC fans who proclaim them title bound if they can beat St. Mary's school for the deaf and blind. The problem is, the ultimate enemy of all the Maryland faithful is reality. Tell me, who has Maryland beaten this year? The fact is, as of now, there is one team in the ACC that is ranked, Duke, who destroyed Maryland by 21 points. A good ACC record may not be good enough by itself to get Maryland in. Take that away and Maryland has done nothing this season. This team has no big wins and a loss to William and Mary really hurts regardless of the kind of year the Tribe is having. Don't get me wrong, Maryland will most likely get a bid. Even if the ACC is having a bad year, a good conference record means a lot. What I am saying is that there is no guarantee because the entire ACC has underachieved and Maryland has an unimpressive non conference resume. They need to beat both Virginia Tech and UVA or just Duke before heading into the ACC tournament or they will be on the bubble. If Maryland were to only win one of their last three and then lose in the first round of the conference tournament, I would not be surprised if Maryland had to watch from home.

Virginia (14-12, 5-8) UVA has really failed to take advantage of a weak ACC. They still have a below .500 conference record and really bad loses to South Florida, Penn State, and Auburn. Sitting atop a five game losing streak, UVA's only hope is to win the ACC tournament. The only reason I even bring it up is because the ACC has been pretty much that bad this year.

Virginia Tech (21-6, 8-5) Tech right now is sitting on the bubble. They have non conference wins over Iowa, Penn State, and Seton Hall. They also have, however, one very bad loss to North Carolina. Despite being the defending National Champions, the Tar Heels have only three conference wins. That is not a group you want to be in. The reason why Tech is in good shape is because this and Boston College are their only bad losses this season and the committee is more likely to forgive bad conference losses than they are non conference. Still, Tech needs to finish strong to make sure.

Georgetown (19-7, 9-6) No doubt here. The Big East really established itself as the best conference this season without question. This conference is loaded. With wins over Louisville, Temple, Pitt, Villanova, UConn, and Duke, this team can afford a loss to ODU and Rutgers. This team will cruise into March Madness and most likely will see a three seed.

American (9-19, 6-7) and Navy (13-15, 7-6) No chance unless they win their conference tournament. Stranger things have happened, the Patriot League stinks.

Old Dominion (22-8, 14-3) Another bubble team. They have one win over Georgetown and are currently dominating their conference, but a lot of bad losses make winning the conference tournament a must. The committee is not going to select a team with losses to Missouri, Mississippi State, Dayton, North Eastern, and Northern Iowa unless they have to.

George Mason (17-12, 12-5) Just not enough on the resume for this team. Mid majors don't have the luxury of hiding behind a good conference record. All five conference losses hurt. Mason really needed to beat Villanova to have a chance, but that's a tall order. If they don't win the conference, they don't make it to March.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-7, 11-6) VCU probably has the best chance of any of the CAA teams of getting an invitation to March madness because they have the most impressive non conference wins against Oklahoma and Richmond. A season ending win over ODU and a strong conference tournament will go a long way towards helping VCU's bubble resume.

William and Mary(19-9, 11-6) What kind of a team beats Maryland and Wake Forest to begin the season and get actual tournament consideration and then loses to Iona and Towson? I was worried WM would actually be good this year, but now they are getting back to WM basics: losing to teams they should beat in games they need to win. Well done. In the end two ACC wins won't be good enough. They need to win the CAA tournament, but ODU and VCU have really established themselves as the class of the CAA. Still, I think WM will see its second ever NIT bid which is a step in the right direction.