Saturday, January 16, 2010

Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth...Who's the Odd Man Out?

The Washington Capitals are now finding themselves with a good problem to have, too many goalies. While none of them are of superstar status yet, two of them very well could be soon. Theodore and Varlamov split time to begin the season before Varlamov began to establish himself as the top goalie. A lingering knee injury for Varlamov, opened the door for Neuvirth to come and show off his goalie skills this season as well. So far he has impressed head coach Bruce Boudreau so much that he's taken over the goalie responsibilities starting 9 of the last 12 games. Many look at Neuvirth's play of late and claim he is even better than Varlamov. With three goalies ready to play, the question for this team going forward is what role each will have.

Varlamov really came to prominence last season as he took over in the playoffs for a struggling Theodore leading the Caps into the second round and finishing with a 7-6 record. His play was so impressive that it was clear his Hershey Bear days were over. He has continued to play well this season posting a 12-1-2 record with a 2.21 GAA, and .924 save percentage. His strength as a goalie is clearly his flexibility. If you can't beat him on the 5-hole, you can't beat him low, period. He can stretch his legs and cover the entire goal line. His large body and imposing frame allow him to play a butterfly style without leaving the top of the net open to shooters. Coming into the season, his major weakness was rebound control, especially with his glove, but he has improved dramatically over the course of the season. The other major problem that has truly revealed itself this season is that he may be injury prone. Varlamov suffers numerous groin and lower body injuries that force him out of the lineup due to his style of play. Still, for all the praise Neuvirth is getting this season, Varlamov still remains the goalie of the future. Say what you want about his weaknesses, he doesn't lose. Period. He has one regular season loss in his career. For every soft goal he gives up, he makes up for it with at least one spectacular save. If the Caps can keep him healthy, then he will become the franchise goalie.

Neuvirth's numbers so far this season aren't nearly as impressive. Right now he has a 5-4 record with a 3.27 GAA, and .892 save percentage, but you shouldn't let these stats take away from the great job he's done taking over for Varlamov. His major strength is his glove. The man should have played shortstop. Nothing would get by him. He still has a ways to go, however, before he can really be an NHL goalie. He lets in far too many soft goals. At times he plays too timid and won't challenge shooters at the top of the crease. He also seems to struggle with his 5-hole, allowing pucks to squeak through. These things, however, can easily be resolved as he continues to develop.

The veteran for this team is Theodore who came into the season as the number one goalie on paper at least, since many thought Varlamov would take over rather quickly. With his contract set to expire at the end of the year, Theodore has performed admirably knowing that he was performing for his job. Comparatively, he appears to be better than the young Neuvirth with 12-7-4 record, 2.88 GAA, and .902 save percentage. His playing time, however, is not a priority for the Capitals organization who want to establish their future superstars. Theodore saw the writing on the wall when it came to Varlamov, but taking the backseat to Neuvirth has clearly upset him. When Varlamov was placed on IR and Neuvirth was called up, Boudreau chose to give the backup significant playing time rather than sit him in favor for the established Theodore. He clearly does not like being backup to the backup.

Caught in this position, the Caps have to make a decision regarding their three goalies relatively quickly. What the team was hoping for was for both Varlamov and Neuvirth to develop by this season so that the team could look to unload Theodore at the trade deadline. With questions surrounding the durability of Varlamov and the play of Neuvirth, the Caps may want to hold onto Theodore for the playoffs and even resign him for a one or two year deal. Theodore seems unlikely to return, however, with two prospective goalies behind him.

The Caps also face another, more long term problem. My guess is that Varlamov will develop into a starting/superstar caliber goalie. He's that good. But if injuries remain a question for him, then the Caps need a backup able to handle the load. In steps Neuvirth, but it is unclear how good he can be. My guess for him is that he will be a perfect fit, a backup who is better than most backups, but not good enough to be a full time starter. This may be wishful thinking. The problem is if he develops into a better or worse goalie. If he is better than a backup, he won't like being a backup and earning backup money. If he isn't as good, then he won't be able to handle the load of an injured Varlamov.

A lot of questions remain for the Capitals surrounding their goalies. They need good, consistent play to make a deep run into the playoffs. They need to decide if they are better off with Theodore or with the value he will bring in through trade. They also need to decide what role Neuvirth will serve in the future. If the Caps do it right, their goalie questions will be over for many seasons to come.

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