Saturday, February 27, 2010

Moves in New Jersey Force Move by Capitals

As the Olympics come to a close, its back to business for the NHL. The trade deadline is quickly approaching (March 3), and George McPhee no longer can afford to watch it pass by. A few weeks ago I wrote about McPhee's reluctance to make any trade deadline moves. "I really don't know why we'd change anything. The team is performing about as well as it can. Why change the mix?" He has always been cautious when it comes to making big trades because he worries about the future of the team. The problem is that now the team is a major competitor for the Stanley Cup. For McPhee to intentionally handicap the team is inexcusable and if last season is any indication, making no moves does in fact handicap the team.

What McPhee needs to ask himself is whether winning one Stanley Cup is more important than being a competitive team for 5-10 years. It is a tough question because trade deadline moves never guarantee a Stanley Cup, but neither does trying to hold the team together. While a big trade could potentially hurt the Caps' future, some players may get impatient if they feel McPhee is not willing to do what it takes to bring the Cup to Washington. What would be the point if Washington missed out on this opportunity and in three years we looked back and realized this was our best chance?

Last season, every team around the Caps got better at the trade deadline, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champions (who will not be named). Now, McPhee needs to take a long hard look at New Jersey. The Devils picked up superstar winger Ilya Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers before the Olympic break. So far, the result have not been anything to write home about, in six games the Devils have won twice and Kovalchuk has only one goal and four assists. The problem is that the Devils have beaten the Capitals three out of four times this season, have one of the best goalies in the NHL, and have allowed 33 fewer goals than the Capitals with the lowest goals against in the league. Of course you can counter that the Capitals are currently 13 points ahead of them in the standings (a huge margin for the number one and two teams in a conference) and have scored a whopping 85 more goals. This is why the Devils traded for Kovalchuk, they need that offensive boost. I am a firm believer, however, in the saying offense wins games, defense wins championships. Playoff hockey is very different from regular season hockey in that defense becomes the deciding factor for most series. When the playoffs start, I would have picked the Devils as the favorite in a coin toss over the Caps, but now with Kovalchuk I think they have really pulled ahead. The strength of New Jersey's defense and goaltending mixed with the new offensive threat the Devils present puts them ahead of the Capitals.

Washington can't just be worried with New Jersey alone. If there is one thing you can take away from the Olympic tournament, it's that Ryan Miller is a top goaltender and his ability can really vault Buffalo into the conference conversation. Pittsburgh has proven they can compete come playoff time and that they are willing to make deadline trades to do so. You can expect many more trades come March 3 as teams look to counter the offensive strength of the Caps.

The bottom line is that the Capitals must bring in a big name defenseman. While Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov, and Michal Neuvirth have all played well, each has their problems. Theodore is known for his inconsistency (see game one against the Rangers in the 09 playoffs), Varlamov has been troubled by a groin injury for two months, and Neuvirth's strong play is frequently mixed with rookie mistakes. The Capitals currently rank 17th in the league in goals against, behind probable playoff competitors New Jersey, Buffalo, Boston, Philadelphia, and Montreal.

The Capitals need to look at the teams that have no hope of making the playoffs and have thrown in the towel: Florida, NY Islanders, Carolina, Toronto, Edmonton, Columbus, and maybe Minnesota and St. Louis. Of those teams, you can throw out Carolina and Florida since division opponents are not likely to make trades with one another. Look at the blue lines of the teams left. McPhee is going to have a problem making a trade since he is reluctant to give up any prospects and that's mostly what these teams will ask for, but if he's willing to trade captain Chris Clark, he can find someone else he's willing to let go. Don't forget, two years ago the Caps managed to pick up goalie Cristobal Huet with only a second round draft pick. If McPhee wants to make a trade, I guarantee he can find someone that will listen.

Even with a 14 game winning streak, the Capitals really seemed to struggle as they frequently played from behind. In the six games prior to the Olympic break the Capitals allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game. That's just not good enough. In the past two post seasons, the Caps weren't able to change their style for playoff hockey and they were sent home because of it. If the Caps can't make it deep into this postseason because McPhee won't make a deadline trade, they will have missed a golden opportunity.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

DC March Madness, Where do they Stand?

With the season winding down, teams all over the country are trying to get that last big win to make sure they'll have a spot in March Madness. Many DC fans are wondering who's in, who needs to pad their resume, and who should start recruiting early this year. This is where the local teams stand (in no particular order):

George Washington (15-11, 5-8) No chance. Usually a bubble team with anxious fans heading into march, it's back to the drawing board this year for the Colonials. After opening the season 4-0, this team has been average at best. It's only real notable win this season is Princeton and that's nothing to write home about. They have really struggled in conference play and I don't see any reason why that would end come tournament time. The Colonials won't challenge for the automatic Atlantic 10 bid.

Richmond (22-6, 11-2) They're in. A great conference record is not always good enough for these mid-major conferences, but Richmond has some non-conference wins to back it up. Wins against Florida and ODU are impressive and while Mississippi State and Missouri aren't great this year, wins like these show that Richmond can compete with the big boys. Even that sometimes isn't enough, but Richmond currently sits at number 24 in the rankings. Being ranked reflects the confidence selectors have in this team. If a team is good enough to be in the top 25, they are good enough to be in a tournament between the top 65. After a 17 point blowout of conference opponent temple, Richmond is my pick to win the A-10, but will receive a bid even if they don't.

Hampton (10-17, 6-8) and Howard (7-22, 6-8) Keep dreaming.

Maryland (20-7, 10-3) I love talking about Maryland because they are continually overrated by DC fans who proclaim them title bound if they can beat St. Mary's school for the deaf and blind. The problem is, the ultimate enemy of all the Maryland faithful is reality. Tell me, who has Maryland beaten this year? The fact is, as of now, there is one team in the ACC that is ranked, Duke, who destroyed Maryland by 21 points. A good ACC record may not be good enough by itself to get Maryland in. Take that away and Maryland has done nothing this season. This team has no big wins and a loss to William and Mary really hurts regardless of the kind of year the Tribe is having. Don't get me wrong, Maryland will most likely get a bid. Even if the ACC is having a bad year, a good conference record means a lot. What I am saying is that there is no guarantee because the entire ACC has underachieved and Maryland has an unimpressive non conference resume. They need to beat both Virginia Tech and UVA or just Duke before heading into the ACC tournament or they will be on the bubble. If Maryland were to only win one of their last three and then lose in the first round of the conference tournament, I would not be surprised if Maryland had to watch from home.

Virginia (14-12, 5-8) UVA has really failed to take advantage of a weak ACC. They still have a below .500 conference record and really bad loses to South Florida, Penn State, and Auburn. Sitting atop a five game losing streak, UVA's only hope is to win the ACC tournament. The only reason I even bring it up is because the ACC has been pretty much that bad this year.

Virginia Tech (21-6, 8-5) Tech right now is sitting on the bubble. They have non conference wins over Iowa, Penn State, and Seton Hall. They also have, however, one very bad loss to North Carolina. Despite being the defending National Champions, the Tar Heels have only three conference wins. That is not a group you want to be in. The reason why Tech is in good shape is because this and Boston College are their only bad losses this season and the committee is more likely to forgive bad conference losses than they are non conference. Still, Tech needs to finish strong to make sure.

Georgetown (19-7, 9-6) No doubt here. The Big East really established itself as the best conference this season without question. This conference is loaded. With wins over Louisville, Temple, Pitt, Villanova, UConn, and Duke, this team can afford a loss to ODU and Rutgers. This team will cruise into March Madness and most likely will see a three seed.

American (9-19, 6-7) and Navy (13-15, 7-6) No chance unless they win their conference tournament. Stranger things have happened, the Patriot League stinks.

Old Dominion (22-8, 14-3) Another bubble team. They have one win over Georgetown and are currently dominating their conference, but a lot of bad losses make winning the conference tournament a must. The committee is not going to select a team with losses to Missouri, Mississippi State, Dayton, North Eastern, and Northern Iowa unless they have to.

George Mason (17-12, 12-5) Just not enough on the resume for this team. Mid majors don't have the luxury of hiding behind a good conference record. All five conference losses hurt. Mason really needed to beat Villanova to have a chance, but that's a tall order. If they don't win the conference, they don't make it to March.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-7, 11-6) VCU probably has the best chance of any of the CAA teams of getting an invitation to March madness because they have the most impressive non conference wins against Oklahoma and Richmond. A season ending win over ODU and a strong conference tournament will go a long way towards helping VCU's bubble resume.

William and Mary(19-9, 11-6) What kind of a team beats Maryland and Wake Forest to begin the season and get actual tournament consideration and then loses to Iona and Towson? I was worried WM would actually be good this year, but now they are getting back to WM basics: losing to teams they should beat in games they need to win. Well done. In the end two ACC wins won't be good enough. They need to win the CAA tournament, but ODU and VCU have really established themselves as the class of the CAA. Still, I think WM will see its second ever NIT bid which is a step in the right direction.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

USA Pulls Off Huge Upset over Canada

Despite high expectations and home ice advantage, team Canada was not able to beat their rival neighbors Sunday and USA skated to an improbable 5-3 win. While Americans may not be huge hockey fans, its important not to lose sight of the importance of this win. USA has not beaten Canada in the Olympics since 1960. When something hasn't happened for 50 years, that's a big deal. This loss really stings Canada because . Americans are coming to their country and beating them at their sport. Imagine if Canada were to beat USA in basketball in Los Angeles. It would be pretty humiliating. This is a game the NHL needs to take note of because it is games like these that can spark interest in the sport. It may be brief, but excitement over American hockey team can translate into interest in the NHL. National rivalries simply wouldn't be the same without the talent that makes them so competitive and the NHL would really miss out on some free publicity.

The short term implications of this win are all very positive for this surprising USA team. With 3 wins, USA heads into the knockout round with the number one seed and a lot of confidence. The draw for the knockout round was as good as you can get and have a real shot at gold or silver. USA cannot face Russia, Canada, or Sweden until the gold medal match. They will face Switzerland in the quarterfinals tomorrow who is certainly not a team you can sleep on, but that should ultimately be a win. In the semis they will face (most likely) either Finland or the Czech Republic who are both good teams, but both are preferable to any of the three powerhouses on the other side of the bracket. The Candaians, who look like they will easily advance over Germany, will have to face Russia in the quarterfinals. Ovechkin vs. Crosby yet again and there is no silver or bronze for the loser. One of these powerhouses will walk away from Vancouver empty handed. Yet another blockbuster Olympic matchup that the NHL for some reason says they wouldn't mind getting rid of.

USA begins their knockout round at 3 tomorrow. If they can beat Switzerland they are guaranteed at least 4th. USA has not won gold since the famous 1980 Olympics (the greatest moment in sports by far, nothing comes close). While the win over Canada was impressive, they won't beat another powerhouse playing like that. Canada dominated but couldn't capitalize on their many chances while USA was able to take advantage of Canada's few mistakes. But now USA has a lot of confidence and know they have the ability to win. Let's hope their streak continues so USA can celebrate another miracle on ice.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Wizards Unload, Look to the Future

Fifty games into a hugely disappointing season, the Washington Wizards have begun unloading their big name players and rebuilding for the future. Washington first sent Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross, and James Singleton. They then traded Dominic McGuire to Sacramento for a 2010 second round draft pick. Finally, in a three team deal, the Wizards sent Antawn Jamison to Cleveland and newly acquired Drew Gooden to the LA Clippers. In return they got Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Al Thornton, a 2010 first round draft pick (from Cleveland), and the rights to Emir Preldzic, a second round pick from last year.

This is clearly a step in the right direction for a team that was going nowhere. It can be very hard for teams to recognize that they have no chance of going forward and that they need to get rid of the talent they have. Butler, Haywood, and Jameson are all very good players. The problem is, it wasn't working. You can load a team with talent, but if they don't win, it doesn't matter (are you listening Dan Snyder!?!?!). You have to start over. The Wizards' 2009-2010 season is over. Now it is time to save money and build a team that will be in a position to win two-three years from now.

That may seem steep, but that is how long it takes. The obvious example comes from the team that shares the Verizon Center, the Washington Capitals. Despite star players Jaromir Jagr, Peter Bondra, Sergei Gonchar, Robert Lang, and several others the team could not win. They then unloaded all their large contracts for draft picks and prospects. The team grew together and in three years won their division and now sit atop the NHL with the best record in the league. While the financial situation for the Capitals was more dire with an NHL lockout looming, it is still something the Wizards need to be aware of. There is no point in continuing to lose money when you've already thrown in the towel.

So let's look at how the Wizards have done so far. Step one is to get rid of the expensive talent. Trading Butler, Haywood, and Jameson had to happen. They all are on the older end of the spectrum; 29, 30, and 33 respectively; and have high contracts, the lowest of which being Haywood's $6 million this season. Step two is to acquire draft picks and younger players. First round picks are always great regardless of how low that pick will be. A second round pick from Sacramento is also good, as Sacramento is likely to have a very high pick. That's two good pickups, not including the very high picks the Wizards will get themselves. As for their player pickups, they got what they could, but not really what they needed. Ross and Singleton are both 28 and have contracts of $1.03 million. Older than the Wizards would have liked, but perhaps future leaders over the next few years. Thornton is a very nice pickup at 26 years old, a $1.9 million contract, and a lot of potential. Right now he averages 10.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, and 1.2 apg and those numbers are likely to continue to go up.

The two guys that make you wonder are the big name pickups. Howard is 29, an inconsistent shooter, and expensive ($10.89 this season). While the Wizards may be thinking that Howard will be the team leader over the next few years, what is more likely is that Dallas wanted Howard included in the deal. To add around $19 million to the salary cap, someone has to go. Howard was the obvious choice. The same goes for Ilgauskas. The Cavaliers needed to add more support for LeBron James for a title run and picked up Jamison. To clear room for his $11.64 million they needed someone to take the $11.54 million Ilgauskus who is in the last season of his contract. Hopefully the Wizards have zero expectations for him. He has been a Wizard for less than a week and is already talking about buying out his contract. With his departure at the end of the season, the Wizards will have plenty of cap space to make some moves.

The biggest question for the Wizards, however, remains unresolved. Gilbert Arenas is still a Wizard. At the moment there is really nothing that can be done. No one will trade for a suspended player and as Arenas has already been punished by the league for his idiotic gun joke, the Wizards cannot release him without having to buy out his ridiculously huge contract. Yet, despite all the controversy surrounding Arenas, team president Ernie Grunfeld said that he would be back. "He's under contract and he's going to be with us. He's part of our organization. If he wants to play, he's going to play here." This statement is rather odd. If Grunfeld thinks he is going to build a team around Arenas, he's dreaming. He already tried and it didn't work. Arenas will be even less dependable when he returns as he continues to get older. Arenas has yet to show that he can continue to play at a superstar level and to assume he can lead the Wizards after failing to do so in the past is just plain stupid. I hope the motivation behind this comment was to encourage Arenas to come back. If Arenas were to buy out his contract, it would save the Wizards a lot of money, but the Wizards would still lose his trade value. Even so, Arenas buying out his own contract may still be the best option. The Wizards need young, cheap talent. Teams can't afford to trade draft picks for Arenas since his contract is so expensive (over $16 million per year). The Wizards might be able to get two or three prospects for him, but ultimately teams may not want to take the risk or pay him that much money. This would leave the Wizards with the choice of buying out his contract themselves or keeping him for another season which would honestly be the worst case scenerio.

Sit back Wizards' fans, the next few seasons are going to be pretty long. If they continue to do things right, they may be playoff bound in two or three years, but they cannot get impatient. Keeping Arenas are bringing in players that just don't fit the system will only set them back. If the Wizards want to rebuild, they need to commit and go all in.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

As Puck Drops in Vancouver, Owners Clearly Upset

Tonight was the first night of men's Olympic hockey in Vancouver. USA won their opener over Switzerland 3-1 and Canada looks like they are running away with their opener against Norway. The bigger story? Whether or not we will see a tournament with so much talent again. These Olympics mark the last year of the NHL deal to break the season for two weeks and allow NHL players to play in the Olympics. Most owners clearly can't wait for this to end.

"From an ownership stand point, in the middle of the season, we would just as soon skip it," said Blackhawks owner, Rocky Wirtz. "It doesn't add any more to our sport."

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager, Brian Burke, also echoed some of the owner's sentiments. "We've done it three times; the only time we got any kind of bang out of it was in Salt Lake. Nagano, Torino, we didn't get anything out of that. So there's a lot of sentiment that this should be the last Olympics that the players play." The problem for the owners is that the Olympics are high risk for them with little reward. In the middle of the season the best players are being sent to play in a different tournament that generates little excitement and no revenue. High Olympic ratings and attendance put no money in their pockets. What if Alex Ovechkin were to get injured? Or Sidney Crosby? The chances of many Stanley Cup contenders can be significantly hurt by injury or fatigue and the owners will have gained nothing from it.

The owners have voiced very valid arguments and concerns, but it's time for them to wake up to reality. It's true that Olympic hockey doesn't seem to draw much attention unless it is played in Canada or America. To continue the season, however, makes no sense. Right now, Olympic hockey is not shown on NBC, but is rather relegated to CNBC. Only a few games are shown on prime time. The rest of the Olympics do very well in the ratings. If owners think people are going to watch NHL hockey during the Olympics, they are sadly mistaken. Low ratings for Olympic hockey doesn't mean low interest in Olympic hockey, it means low interest in hockey. What owners don't seem to realize about the Olympics is that while they may not be gaining anything from them, they aren't losing anything either. NHL ratings during the Olympics if they chose to continue with the season would be a complete disaster. It would be a real reality check when owners find out more people are watching figure skating than regular season NHL games, which I guarantee would happen.

If playing during the Olympics doesn't make sense, what about not playing? The NHL could keep its Olympic break even if it doesn't allow NHL players to play. It would allow players to rest, but this is an even worse set up. Halting NHL play while not allowing players to go to the Olympics would be a slap in the face. If they aren't going to continue the season, there's no reason to not go to the Olympics. The NHLPA has already made it clear that this is extremely important to players. They want to play. Ovechkin upped the ante a few months ago during an interview in which he said that he would play in the Olympics even if the NHL season continued. "Nobody can say to me, 'You can't play for your country in the Olympic games.'" While players have an obligation to their NHL teams, they clearly have passion for these games. Why stifle that? There are various other international hockey competitions, but none with the same spotlight and prestige as the Olympics. This is really the only major international stage for these players. To deny attempt to deny them of that chance is pretty rotten. Imagine trying to tell David Beckham that he can't play in the World Cup because of his obligation to the LA Galaxy. He would walk too.

Ok, so the Olympics don't give the NHL much of a boost. That's nothing compared to the hit they'll take if they stupidly try to continue playing. Can players get injured? Sure, but the international game is not nearly as physical. Hitting is not as much a part of the game and fighting is absolutely not allowed (which will be true in the NHL in the next 5-10 years, but that's an issue for another blog). There are no enforcers on these Olympic rosters. Of course the possibility of injury is still there, but it's much less likely. The NHL can learn a lot by studying a much more skilled style of hockey as we saw when they adopted many rules from Olympic hockey after the lockout. When there is growing fear that European leagues such as the Russian KHL league will begin taking away NHL players (Jaromir Jagr, Viktor Kozlov, Sergei Federov) why deny the players something that they have made clear is extremely important to them? Why risk stars like Ovechkin walking out on the NHL to play Olympic hockey? Owners may be focused on the cons of Olympic participation, but if they really thought about what would happen if they were to try and continue with the season, they would realize what a complete disaster that would be.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Caps Top Penguins in a Game for the Ages

The stage was set Sunday for another typical Capitals/Penguins matchup. The Caps always seem to play real well when nothing important is on the line, but the Penguins always win the important matchups. The Caps won three straight games against Pittsburgh last season and with the season sweep on the line, the Caps lost. They opened the playoff series with two wins before losing the next four out of five to lose the series. This season, the Caps won the first matchup, but with a 13 game streak on the line, they came into the game flat. Nothing went their way. The Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin rivalry wasn't going well as Crosby scored the first two goals of the game. Penalties were not going their way and late in the second the Caps saw themselves down 4-1. Everyone in the stadium dressed in red gave a collective groan as yet again, the Caps could not get over the hump. How far can we go in the playoffs if we can't win the big ones?

And then, things began to turn. Eric Fehr got the Caps within two before the period ended and that was all Ovechkin needed. He refused to lose and gave the intrepid Caps' fans something to cheer about as he netted two goals to tie the game. Then, a blistering shot off the post led to the Mike Knuble overtime winner. It has already been declared the best game of the season and I believe it was the greatest game I have ever personally been to.

Improbable comeback aside, this game was great because of the history and the way it was played. Long time Caps fans love to hate the Penguins because of the disastrous playoff history between the two. The Caps have faced the Penguins eight times in the post season and have won the series only once. More recently the rivalry has been reignited by the Crosby, Ovechkin rivalry. All of that was on display, but there was something else that just really taunted the Washington faithful, and that was Pittsburgh's style of play. Crosby has faced criticism since he entered the league for his lack of physical play and his constant complaining to the refs. An example was last season when he complained to the refs about how many hats were being thrown onto the ice after an Ovechkin hat trick. Unbelievable. It's why Ovechkin is the better player. I have never seen Crosby score a goal that I thought Ovechkin couldn't score. Forget about the insane behind the back and over the head goal against Phoenix and there are still numerous goals and performances by Ovechkin that Crosby couldn't match because he won't play phyical. If Crosby breaks his nose, can you see him scoring four goals including the overtime winner like Ovechkin did against Montreal? Nope. How about the dozens of Ovechkin goals that he scores while pushing the defender away with one arm including the spin around goal last season? Couldn't happen.

Both players are models for their team's style. What we saw on Sunday was a Capital's team with great offensive talent that plays a quick, physical game and that isn't afraid to fight. What we saw from Pittsburgh is a team with great offesnive talent that will complain every time they get hit, but then will throw cheap shots at you. It is an infuriating style of play because that is not how hockey should be played and yet they win with it. It's like that guy in college who never studies or does work, but gets straight As. You hate him because that's not the way it should be done, but he is still doing just as well if not better than you are. Early in the first period Ovechkin drove to the net and after the whistle blew the Penguins' defensmen slashed his knee and then pushed him up high. No call. Pittsburgh drove the net and Chris Kunitz skated up to Jose Theodore and checked him as if he were a regular skater. Theodore did a little flip in the air and went down hard. He was given a minor penalty. Later on Ovechkin was pushed by Craig Adams from behind onto the ice and driven into the boards hard. Mike Knuble came to his defense and was given a minor penaly for instigating, a major penalty for fighting, and a 10 minute misconduct. Adams? Just a fighting major. This all happened just in the first period. There was more of the same in the second. After Jordan Staal gave the Penguins a 3-1 lead, Caps defenseman Brian Pothier was pushed into the celebrating Penguins who, all five of them, proceeded to beat on Pothier. The Caps came to his defense. What team would have done any different? The Caps and Penguins were given matching minors and misconducts despite the fact that it was all started by Pittsburgh and Washington was just trying to defend their teammates. Sometimes the calls just don't go your way, but how can a team play the way the Penguins do and get no calls? By the end of the second period the Caps were down 4-2 and had been called for six minor penalties, one major, and two misconducts. In that second period, each Capitals' penalty was preceded by a worse Penguins' infraction that was not called, and that is not an exaggeration or biased take. I talked to a Pittsburgh fan who agreed with me. Frustration in the building was felt everywhere not just because of the rivalry, not just because it was Crosby, or because the streak was on the line. We were frustrated because there was no justice. A hockey team was playing a non physical, dirty game and they were winning while we were getting thrown into the penalty box.

After the Caps roared back to tie it, the refs made their presence known yet again when with 4:08 left to go in regulation, Matt Cooke's stick broke and Jeff Schultz was called for slashing. No one, regardless of whether they were wearing black and gold or red and blue, could argue that the right call was made. Cooke's stick simply broke. But, at a pivotal point in the game, the Caps were going shorthanded. In overtime, Brooks Orpik was called for a high stick on Alexander Semin. What did he do? He argued with the ref so profusely that he was given a misconduct penalty. Afterwards he complained about how Semin took a dive and about how he always takes a dive. Are you kidding me? YOU PLAY FOR THE PITTSBURGH PENGUINS!!! Not only was it the right call, but no one from Pittsburgh can ever complain about diving. That's half the Penguins game plan. This is why we hate the Penguins. This is why it was important to win. Not only is it good for DC, but it's good for the game of hockey. When one player can complain about the refs even after they gave the other team seven minor penalties, two majors, and two misconducts, then you're an idiot and a cry baby. His team had their chance to win when the Caps went shorthanded with four minutes left. They didn't take advantage. The Caps did. Learn the game of hockey and deal with it.

The Caps went down 4-1, Crosby had two goals, the refs were terrible, and Pittsburgh was playing dirty. What happened? The Caps won 5-4, Ovechkin had a hat trick, they won off a power play goal, and they did it playing the game the way it should be played. Playoff success may not be guaranteed, but the Caps took one major step forward by getting over the Pittsburgh hump and doing it by playing real hockey. Well done.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Saints Go Marching in Miami

On Super Bowl Sunday, 106 million viewers watched a team that for so long was in the basement of the NFL walk away as Super Bowl champions. New Orleans isn't the home of the Aints any longer. Now its fans chant "Who Dat?" instead of wearing bags on their heads.

There's not much I can say about New Orleans that hasn't been said repeatedly by every sports analyst in the country. This football team and championship may mean more to New Orleans than a team in any other city. It has given the people, so devastated by hurricane Katrina, something to rally around. That is going to be some party....

The game itself as well as the post season also showed the NFL a lot of things. First is the benefit of resting players. After the momentum swing that carried the New York Giants to a Super Bowl win in 2008, teams that rested players and took the foot off the gas towards the end of the regular season were really looked down on by the rest of the league. No more. The Saints went 13-0 and finished the season 13-3. The Colts went 14-0 before benching Peyton Manning in a game against the New York Jets and finished the season 14-2. Everyone criticized this move. The result? Did the Colts lose all of their momentum and go into their playoff matchup against the Jets with no confidence? Of course not. The Jets played a tough game, but the Colts really stayed in control.

The Saints defense also really made its mark in the post season. With a star studded offense, it's easy to overlook the guys on defense, but take a look at who the Saints beat to get to win the Super Bowl: Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning. That's impressive.

Finally, something that does not bode well for the Washington Redskins, we saw the importance of a great quarterback when it comes to the post season. Top tier quarterbacks lead to success. That sounds obvious, but there are numerous teams that settle with an average quarterback because it's not "fair" to compare someone to Tom Brady and as long as he gets the ball to his receiver he'll be ok. False. The matchup between Drew Brees and Manning really highlighted this fact. Two of the best quarterbacks, if not the best, matched up against one another. Take a look at the quarterbacks who have competed in the Super Bowl over the last few years:

2010: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning
2009: Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger
2008: Eli Manning, Tom Brady

All six quarterbacks are considered to be some of the best in league. The last time an average (or below) quarterback made it to the Super Bowl was in 2007 when Rex Grossman came in with the Bears, and, of course, Chicago lost to Peyton and the Colts. The last time an average quarterback won a Super Bowl was Super Bowl 35 in 2001 when the Ravens won even with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. This season, the playoffs saw teams led by Manning and Brees, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco. Mark Sanchez is probably the worst of the bunch and he's not bad. It just shows you that in today's game you have to be secure in the quarterback position to make and be successful in the playoffs. There is not a single quarterback on the list of playoff quarterbacks who is not better than Jason Campbell. Something for Mike Shannahan to think about moving forward.

Ultimately I was happy to see Drew Brees raise the Lombardi trophy for his team. It's good to see the good guys win when the headlines always seem to be dominated by the idiots (Gilbert Arenas, Mark McGwire, Plaxico Burress, etc.). Yo can rest assured that he will receive the welcome he deserves in New Orleans. With Mardi Gras next week, I don't think the party is going to stop.

And don't worry! If you think I could possibly pass up the chance to write about the Caps/Penguins game from Sunday, you're mistaken. I will write about it in tomorrow's blog.

Let's go Caps!

Thursday, February 4, 2010

George Mcphee's Short Memory

Ok, I know the trade deadline has been a pretty frequent topic of mine in this blog, but Capitals' general manager George McPhee is not putting my mind at ease. ESPN analyst Pierre LeBrun asked McPhee about the trade deadline and he responded saying "Well, at this point, I really don't know why we'd change anything. The team is performing about as well as it can. Why change the mix? Certainly if there's something there that would make us better, we would consider it. But there's a lot to be said about chemistry and the intangibles, and we certainly have all that right now. Why give away good young players or picks...we want to be a good team for a long time, not just one season."

McPhee is half right. We absolutely want the Caps to be a good team for a long time, but the top priority is winning the Stanley Cup. The lesson of last season must be learned. Last season the Caps went into March as the number two team in the conference. They looked good, a playoff berth was not in question, and everyone thought they were going to be one of the major competitors for the conference championship. McPhee decided to err on the side of caution and made no moves, presumably for the same reasons he listed above. It looked like sound reasoning, but EVERYONE around the Caps in the standings got better. The result? The Caps struggled in an opening round matchup against a much weaker team and were eventually beaten by the hated Penguins; a Pittsburgh team that DID make deadline moves and ended up winning the Stanley Cup.

This season it is even more important to make a move. Yes, the Caps are red hot, but eventually this streak will end and with it will most likely come the inevitable let down. A good way to relight the fire is with a trade to mix things up. This alone, however, isn't reason enough to make a move. The importance is that the Caps have the bullseye. They are the team to beat in the east. The road to the Stanley Cup in the east runs through Washington. When teams head into March, they will be thinking about the Caps. Teams will be building up for a matchup against the Capitals. Why yield the advantage? Why allow other teams to close the gap? Especially with question marks regarding the defense and goaltending. There is room for improvement despite how good they have been playing and there are moves to be made.

When it comes to winning there is always a limited window of opportunity. I'm not saying that the Caps won't be good for very long, but success like we have seen this season should be a sign that now is the time to make a run. McPhee has always been thinking about the future success of this team, but at some point he has to think about the present. If a winning streak of 11 games and counting plus a 10 point lead in the conference aren't enough to convince McPhee that it's time to start chasing Lord Stanley, what will?

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Reggie Bush, Vince Young, or Mario Williams?

In 2006 when the Houston Texans announced they would not be taking college stars Reggie Bush or Vince Young in the draft and would instead sign Mario Williams. Everyone thought they were nuts. Since that time, Williams has established himself as the most consistent of the three. Many people praised the foresight of the Texans saying they had picked the best player instead of the flashiest player. With Bush about to make his first Super Bowl appearance, I think it's time we reevaluate.

No one can take away the career Williams has managed thus far. In four seasons he has 39.5 sacks and has yet to miss a game. He has become a staple of Houston's defensive line. That's more than you can say of either Bush or Young, whose careers are both marked by inconsistency. Bush has been unable to establish himself as a top running back and follows every great performance with a sloppy one. Young quickly took over as starting quarterback for Tennessee, but eventually lost it to Kerry Collins because of injury and a bizarre mental episode. This season after an 0-6 start, Young took back the team leading them to a final record of 8-8.

Williams certainly has had a more consistent career, but one reason why I would not have taken him is the immediate impact, before the players ever hit the field. Houston was a team going nowhere. The excitement of the new team had worn off and the fans needed a franchise player to reignite the fan base. Young was the perfect choice. Born and raised in Houston and being a leader simply by position, he could have reinvigorated the fan base and the team the moment his name was announced by Roger Goodell. Bush would have had the same affect. Look at what he did for New Orleans. The city needed a player like Bush just as much if not more than Houston after Katrina. Bush hadn't played a single game, but he was all over the city and became an instant fan favorite. Defensive end isn't exactly a flash position and Houston didn't get that from their number one pick.

Many would argue that what matters is on the field and that Houston picked what they needed, not just what was flashy. I certainly understand this position, but Bush and Young have something that Williams does not, post season experience. Young led Tennessee to the playoffs in 2007 and Bush has gone in 2006 and 2009 going at least as far as the NFC Conference Championship game both times. Williams and the Texans have failed thus far to make the playoffs. It would be unfair to blame Houston's inability to make the post season on Williams, but you also can't discount Bush and Young's contributions. As starting quarterback, Young was a big reason his team was in. He won numerous awards in his rookie season and was the catalyst for his team's success in 2007. Bush may not be a consistent starter, but he is the x factor for the Saints. He is the kind of player that will burn you if you don't account for him, the kind of guy that can give you a huge run, catch, or punt return when the rest of your offense is stagnant. Watch highlights of the Saint's playoff game against Arizona. He had 84 yards on 5 carries and a touchdown and a punt return for another touchdown.

What you end up with when you look at it is the Peyton Manning, Tom Brady debate. One is consistently a great player while the other dominates the playoffs. If you could pick one, many would take Manning (aka Williams). But when you reach the playoffs maybe Brady (Bush or Young) is the better choice. It's hard to compare a defensive end to a running back or a quarterback, and I can't argue over Williams' numbers, but Houston's number one pick might not be as smart as many people think.