Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Capitals Ready to Offer Defenseman Volchenkov Deal

Five weeks before free agency starts and the Capitals may already have their first target. Ottawa defenseman Anton Volchenkov is set to become a free agent this off season. Though both Volchenkov and the Ottawa Senators have expressed interest in working out a deal, the talks seem to have stalled. "I'd like to re-sign him," said Senators GM Bryan Murray, "but the dollars don't work at the present asking price." With sources saying that Volchenkov has put his house in Ottawa up for sale, it looks like he will be moving on and Washington will be the most likely destination.

Washington is definitely interested in the tough defensemen and is reportedly willing to offer him $5 million a year in a multi year contract. The team hopes to sell him with a large offer, the chance to play with a contender, and the chance to play with numerous star countrymen such as Alexander Ovechkin and Semyon Varlamov. Reports also say that the Capitals will ask Ovechkin to talk to Volchenkov to sell the deal.

While we are still five weeks away from free agency and Volchenkov is a long way off from donning the red, white, and blue jersey, this is an encouraging step from the Capitals. Volchenkov is the tough, gritty, defensive minded type of player this team so desperately needs on their back line. He was one of Ottawa's top defensemen and is consistently one of the best shot blockers in the league every year. Volchenkov's style of play is a "stay at home defenseman" who lines players up for big hits, but is reluctant offensively. This contrasts very well with the rest of the team's very aggressive style. It shows that the team has recognized the need for that defensive stalwart.

The only problem is the price tag. $5 million a year is a very steep price. The Capitals tend to outbid other teams for free agents and they do not always get their money's worth, Michael Nylander being the most obvious (and one of the most expensive) examples. It is also unlikely that the Capitals will sign only Volchenkov and wait for the season to begin, so with more players to sign, the team will need to free up some cap space. Jose Theodore's departure cannot be far off. The team will also have to decide on Alexander Semin's future sooner rather than later. Fans would hate to seem him leave and the team would hate to let him go without getting equal value in return, but such a high priced deal may force an early exit to one of the team's superstars.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wizards Win Draft Lottery, Face Choice

Representing the Washington Wizards and her late husband, Irene Pollin's jaw dropped as she discovered the team had won the NBA draft lottery. Despite only a 10.3% chance, the Wizards will now have their choice of stars John Wall and Evan Turner, a good problem to have.

"I think it's the culmination of my husband's dream because he wanted another ring and maybe this will get us another ring," Pollin said. Wall and Turner are widely considered as the top two prospects. Wall played one year for the University of Kentucky and dazzled in his time there averaging 16.9 points per game and 6.4 assist per game. He also plays point guard which is considered the most important position in basketball. Turner is a shooting guard and was perhaps the best college player in the country averaging 20.3 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game at Ohio State. Wall is considered by most as the best pro prospect in the draft and expected to turn into a superstar player, but there is one thing standing in the way, Gilbert Arenas.

Arenas' mere presence continues to hurt the Wizards and now he has turned what looks like a no-brainer into a tough decision. The problem is that Arenas is the Wizards' current point guard. In order to rebuild this team, the Wizards need a starter and a possible star in the making from the draft. This is John Wall. Turner is a great player, but Wall is clear number one choice this draft. If the team is committed to keeping Arenas, as they claim to be, then unfortunately they will consider passing Wall for Turner who can start along side Arenas.

This is just stupid. Arenas has tainted the Wizards for too long and needs to go. They now have the opportunity to bring in a probable star at point guard and they cannot afford to pass that up. I am not down on Turner, but it is agreed among almost all NBA analysts that Wall should be the top pick. This is the team's chance to replace Arenas. They have cap space. With Wall and another superstar free agent pickup, you could see a new team next season. The Arenas era needs to come to an end because it has failed. I trust new owner, Ted Leonsis, who turned the Capitals organization around, to recognize what needs to happen and somehow push Arenas out the door.

As with all NBA stories these days, I also have to mention the possible impact this will have on Lebron's decision. The New Jersey Nets are named as one of the possible destinations for Lebron, but I feel the chances of that are now over. What New Jersey had to offer was a shot by winning the draft, but as they fell to number three I feel that is too low. Most likely the Nets will not get either Wall or Turner and so the appeal of New Jersey has now dropped tremendously. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov will do what he can to stay in the Lebron sweepstakes, but I think New Jersey's stock has now plummeted in Lebron's eyes because of the lottery.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Caps Take First Step, Sign Backstrom to 10 Year Deal

The Washington Capitals took the first step towards remaining a Stanley Cup contending team on Monday with a deal to keep their superstar center. The team announced this morning that they have signed Nicklas Backstrom to a 10 year, $67 million deal. Backstrom's entry level contract expired at the end of this season and he was scheduled to become a free agent in July.

Most general managers are reluctant to sign such long term deals, but the Capitals now have two with Ovechkin's 13 year deal. George McPhee seemed unconcerned. "The risks are that the player doesn't meet expectation with the contract, but I never for one minute with Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom think that they won't compete all the way through," he said. "It sends the right message to our fans and to this franchise that we have outstanding young players who are ready to commit for the rest of their career." Backstrom has yet to miss a single game in his three year career and his points continue to improve. Singing a player of Backstrom's caliber does not seem to be much of a risk even if it is for such a high price. With the probable departure of other expensive players such as Jose Theodore, the team can afford to sign this much needed deal.

As soon as the Capitals finished their disappointing playoff series against Montreal, signing Backstrom became the top priority. He has become one of the best centers in the league and has developed a report with Ovechkin. The two teamed up for 210 points in the regular season, the highest scoring duo in the NHL.

The Capitals also announced that they had signed their first round draft pick from 2009, Marcus Johansson to a three-year entry level contract. The team hopes Backstrom can help him develop enough in the offseason to earn a roster spot next season. With the probable departure of Brendan Morrison, developing another center will be important.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Lebron James on the Clock

Lebron James' 2009-2010 season has come to a close and the questions about where he will be next season have already begun swarming. Everyone is speculating about what he will do as a free agent, whether he will stay in Cleveland or if he will leave and where. I have heard every single thing he has said scrutinized and every possibility analyzed. Among the analysis are several intriguing points and several stupid guesses. I figured I should try to clarify the possibilities and add my own guess as to what he will do.

Quick note: What I write that he is thinking and where I think he will go are total guesses. I could be way off because I have no idea what Lebron is thinking, but the fact of the matter is that none of the big analysts do either. All the guesses I have heard are just guesses because Lebron has been pretty tight lipped on his intentions so I cannot be more wrong than everybody else.

I believe there will be two things Lebron looks for when trying to decide where to go. The first and most important thing is that he wants to win a championship. This is the most important thing on his mind. He has been in the league for seven seasons and still has yet to win. The second thing that makes this more tricky is that I believe he wants to help resurrect a franchise and then lead them to a championship. This sounds odd, but bear with me. Part of Michael Jordan's legacy is that he took a team with nothing, the Chicago Bulls, and turned them into a dynasty. Kevin Garnett went to a terrible Boston team with a proud past and won a championship. For someone of Lebron's caliber, I do not think he wants to simply join a playoff caliber team to get them over the hump, he wants to resurrect a franchise and build his own dynasty. Cleveland was initially a perfect fit because he was offered that chance.

Cleveland still remains a great fit for him for several reasons. Lebron grew up in Akron so this is his home town team. He loves staying at home, he loves visiting his old school and his old gym, and he clearly wants to win in Cleveland. He has still yet to deliver the ultimate prize to the Cavaliers and many think that to leave now is to admit defeat and will tarnish his legacy. Also, after years of letting Lebron carry the team on his shoulders, owner Dan Gilbert has finally shown that he is committed to bringing a championship team together. Over the last few seasons Cleveland began acquiring big name players for a championship run including Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal, and Antawn Jamison. As Lebron's current team, Cleveland can offer Lebron more money than any other team. Knowing that the future of this franchise is tied heavily to Lebron, Gilbert is going to do whatever it takes to keep him around.

While it will be hard to leave his home, I think Lebron will be gone. Money is not going to really factor into his decision. No one is going to be dumb enough to try and lowball him and he will get a big contract no matter where he goes. I just think Lebron is frustrated with Cleveland. Yes, they have done more in the past two seasons to win a championship then they did before, but it still is not working. Second round exits are not what he was expecting. At this point with a strong team around him he will probably look to the coach as the missing piece of the puzzle. Mike Brown was badly out-coached by Doc Rivers and last season by Stan Van Gundy. I believe Brown will be fired but it will be too little too late. Even with a strong team around him, Lebron still needs to carry them. Every once in a while, Kobe Bryant has a bad game but the Lakers' team around him can still steal a game. Cleveland falls apart without Lebron.

The key to Lebron's decision is Kevin Garnett. Look at what he has done with his career. Garnett was drafted by Minnesota in 1995 and played there for 12 years. He was never able to win a championship and then finally signed with Boston in 2007. He came in with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and this trio was able to build a proud franchise back up and win a championship in 2008. While Garnett teamed up with two other superstars, he was still seen as the key guy. Also, and most importantly, no one talks about Minnesota as a failure. What people remember is the success he has had in Boston. The mold has been set. Team up with superstars and resurrect a proud franchise. Success in the end, is what matters. Essentially, the only way for Cleveland to keep Lebron is to fire Brown and bring in one of the other several free agent superstars available, but that might not be enough for a frustrated James.

So what would he do and where would he go? If he truly is frustrated with Cleveland, what he will do is start talking with another free agent. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemaire, and Dirk Nowitzki are all available. He will talk with a superstar and make plans to join the same team. As for where he would go, there are many guesses but the leading candidates seem to be New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, or Los Angeles (Clippers). You can go ahead and throw Los Angeles out of the mix. No one says, "I want to win a championship, I'm going to be a Clipper!" LA was not the worst team last season, but the stigma of the Clippers still hangs over the team. Imagine if Adrian Peterson left Minnesota to become a Detroit Lion. Even the Kobe/Lebron rivalry possibility would not be enough to bring in Lebron.

A lot of people see Chicago as a likely possibility because they are already a playoff team and have the best chance of winning a championship quickly. If Lebron truly feels that coaching is what's missing in Cleveland, he is not going to go to Chicago where they have no coach. Also, while he does want a championship he is still 25. He still wants to build a team and still has time to do it. This takes both Chicago and Miami off the list. Miami won a championship behind Wade and was the fifth ranked team in the playoffs this season. If he still has not won by the time he is 30 he may consider going to a playoff team, but I do not think he is that desperate yet.

This leaves New York and New Jersey. How do such lousy teams make sense? New Jersey is a contender because they can win the draft lottery. Bringing in Lebron, Bosh, and John Wall (probable first overall pick) changes the team completely. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov is also a big spender who will do what it takes to make New Jersey a contender. The major contender, however, is New York. The Knicks already have coach Mike D'Antoni, a well respected NBA coach who was a constant contender in the west with Phoenix. Of all the coaches of all the teams Lebron is considering at the moment, he is the best. Cleveland will need to find someone as notable as D'Antoni to have any chance. Heading to New York, the market, the city, and the franchise will certainly be enticing. Mix in the head coach and the second superstar that Lebron would want to bring with him, and you already have a brand new New York team with the money to bring in whoever else the team may be missing. New York offers a big city, a big market, a good coach, and a franchise to build. All of these are things Lebron James will be looking for.

Of all the possibilities, New York makes the most sense. Of course, should New Jersey win the draft lottery, you cannot count them out. I believe both are more likely than Lebron staying in Cleveland. Of course, free agency does not start until July 1 so we will have to wait and see, assuming we can stomach the ridiculous amount of media attention that will follow his every move for the next two months.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Donovan McNabb Continues Trying to Build the Redskins

Former Eagles' running back Michael Westbrook just visited the Washington Redskins and is now headed to Denver for another team visit. Westbrook was invited at the behest of his former teammate Donovan McNabb, the newly acquired Redskins' quarterback. Despite the fact that the Redskins have already signed Larry Johnson and Willie Parker this offseason to backup Clinton Portis, McNabb thought Westbrook would be just a super fit. Mr. McNabb, with respect, please focus on throwing the football and let the front office worry about what players to sign.

Since coming to the team, McNabb has suggested bringing in loudmouth wide receiver Terrell Owens and now Michael Westbrook. Now I understand that McNabb was brought in to be a vocal team leader, that I have no problem with. As a prominent leader and acquisition for the team, the Redskins cannot simply discount the suggestions he makes, but the reality is that McNabb has not played a single game for the Redskins and his suggestions stink.

As soon as I heard McNabb talking about Owens I was terrified. If there was any owner in the league that would over pay a controversial wide receiver who constantly drops the ball and struggles to make an impact it would of course be Daniel Snyder. While Owens clearly has talent, he expects to receive a superstar contract and the offense to revolve around him. At this point in his career Owens is a number two receiver and deserves a comparable contract. He will never accept that and so he finds himself currently out of a job. Snyder has a history of overpaying big name players (Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth, etc) and so I thought this might happen. Luckily the team came out and said they had no interest.

McNabb, however, is talking again! To be fair, I thought Westbrook would be a great acquisition when the offseason began. Portis is getting older and the team needed a more reliable backup than Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright. I think Portis is still good enough to be a great running back in the league, but last season made it clear he needed another running back to handle some of the offensive load and take some of the pressure off. Westbrooks' injury concerns are what led him to be cut by Philadelphia and I think his future in the league will be as the number two running back. This made him a great fit for the Redskins. Now he's not. The team should be dismissing this as quickly as they did with Owens, not inviting him to visit. Washington's need for a running back ended when the team signed both Johnson and Parker. Both will contribute, both will make an immediate impact, both have already signed, and both will struggle for as many carries as they feel they should be getting. Both of these players are former starters who were let go by their former teams. Sometimes starters can struggle accepting reduced roles. I expect that by the end of the season, between Portis, Johnson, and Parker, one of them will be unhappy believing their talents are not being fully utilized. Now you're talking about bringing in a fourth running back? This makes no sense.

McNabb was signed after Johnson and Parker. He knows he has three backs ready to play and he is still talking about Westbrook. What does this say about the confidence he has in the running backs? What must Johnson and Parker be thinking now that McNabb is talking about bringing in another guy? I understand trying to help out a friend, but McNabb has been a Redskin for about a month. He has not played a single game. He is also on a team with a new head coach and new general manager. The Redskins do not need McNabb talking about who he thinks they should bring in.

Because McNabb is a quarterback and very talented, he is constantly interviewed and what he says quickly becomes very public and teams have to take note. I hope that the Redskins brought in Westbrook just out of respect for McNabb and are not seriously considering signing him. If they do, the Redskins will have two or three upset running backs by the end of the season thanks to a quarterback who has yet to prove himself in DC.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Nationals' Pitching Reevaluated

Thirty games into the 2010 baseball season and the Washington Nationals find themselves above .500. The last time the team was above .500 was five games into the 2008 season when they went 3-2. The recent success of the team has to be credited with the tremendous pitching they have received so far this season. After a slow start, this Nationals' bullpen looks very good.

There are of course a few players struggling early on. One of the team's big signings in the offseason was starter Jason Marquis, who has been nothing short of terrible so far this season. In three starts he has only lasted 8.1 innings and has three losses and a staggering 20.52 ERA. Now he is currently on the disabled list with "floating bodies in the elbow." Three games does not a bust make, but I do not think these are the numbers the team had in mind when they signed him. Ace John Lannan has also struggled somewhat this season with a 6.34 ERA through six starts, posting only two quality starts.

Still, there are several bright spots on this new Nationals' team. Scott Olsen put together an impressive game on Thursday against Atlanta, holding a no-hitter until the eighth inning. Reliever Tyler Clippard has five wins which is currently tied for second in the league, Livan Hernandez has the second best ERA among all starters with a 0.99 trailing only Ubaldo Jimenez who many believe is the leading Cy Young Candidate, and closer Matt Capps has 12 saves which leads all of MLB. And of course, one cannot forget this team still has Stephen Strasburg in the mix. Strasburg made the jump to AAA this week and in his first start allowed one hit in six innings.

No doubt everyone will be keeping an eye on him to see if he continues playing well at the AAA level, but the real question right now is are the Nationals actually poised to challenge for the wild card? It may be too early to start thinking about that, but when the team has lost 100 games the past two seasons, having an above .500 record 30 games in is definitely a hopeful sign that the team is finally turning things around. In order to continue winning, however, the Nationals will need to continue getting strong performances from their surprising bullpen.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Offseason Questions for the Capitals

The Washington Capitals find themselves cleaning out their lockers and heading into the offseason much earlier than they would have hoped this year. Now they face the numerous questions regarding coaches, free agents, and how they expect to go farther in the playoffs next season. Here are the most important questions facing this team in the offseason.

Coach: In the wake of their improbable first round upset, management hinted that changes would be coming this offseason. Immediately, people assumed this meant head coach Bruce Boudreau. Owner Ted Leonsis and general manager George McPhee have already put those rumors to rest. "He's a really good coach," McPhee said, "He's going to be here a really long time. No need to raise those issues because he's not going anywhere." Talking about coaching changes are certainly premature at this point, but if the Caps have an early exit next season it will be an option that is at least discussed.

Nicklas Backstrom: The biggest priority for the Caps heading into the offseason is Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom's entry level contract expired at the end of this season and he is now a restricted free agent. Backstrom seems happy in Washington and has never indicated he is considering going elsewhere, and as the Caps have the right to make him an offer I expect they will do whatever it takes to keep him. I would be surprised if signing him is a major issue, but what the Caps have to pay him will be. Make no mistake, they will pay him what he wants. The problem is that his previous contract was entry level and since then he has established himself as a superstar. Signing him now is going to cost a significant amount of money and this could impact who the Caps try to sign when free agency begins. Listed below are the other restricted and unrestricted free agents on the Caps' roster:

Restricted- Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Fleischmann, Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Jeff Schultz, Michal Neuvirth
Unrestricted- Brendan Morrison, Scott Walker, Quintin Laing, Eric Belanger, Alexandre Giroux, Boyd Kane, Kyle Wilson, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, Joe Corvo, Jose Theodore

Goalies: The big name here of course is Jose Theodore, who I am not expecting the Caps to sign. While he has been a tremendous asset to the team and has put together two impressive regular seasons, he has not been a reliable playoff goalie. Twice he has gone in as the starter and failed both times to last two full games. Boudreau told reporters prior to the series against Montreal that Theodore would not have a short leash this season and he was still pulled early in game two. While confidence in him is not high, Boudreau has shown a lot of confidence in young Michal Neuvirth. When Varlamov went down with injury in the regular season, it was expected that Theodore would take over as the primary goalie. Boudreau, however, started Neuvirth in 16 games. He will be a major priority for the team to sign this summer. Theodore will walk and the money the team will save from his contract will go to Backstrom.

Defense: Defense really needs to be a focus for the Caps this offseason. They were ranked 1st offensively and 16th defensively. More importantly they were ranked 25th on the penalty kill. As good as they were, the Caps had to play from behind constantly this season. While they were able to overcome numerous deficits in the regular season, it really hurt them in the playoffs. The first thing the team needs to do is talk to Mike Green. Last year he was widely criticized for his lack of conditioning in the playoffs and he spent the entire offseason trying to get in better shape. Now he needs to work on his defensive game. It is the only thing holding him back, but it is a serious problem since he is a DEFENSEman. His offensive skill does not excuse his poor defensive play. Regarding the team's free agents, they will not allow Jeff Schultz, who won the plus-minus award this season and seems to be finally coming into his own, to leave. They will also attempt to re-sign Shaone Morrisonn, one of the few defensive minded defensemenon the team. Milan Jurcina will not be back. As the team already traded him once, I do not think there will be much urgency to sign him again, especially with the emergence of Jon Carlson. Joe Corvo looked tremendous in the postseason, but signing him will be expensive and my guess would be that the team let's him go. My biggest fear regarding defense will be that the team decides to rely solely on the emergence of Carlson, Tyler Sloan, and Karl Alzner and do not attempt to sign a more defensive player. If they cannot sign Shaone Morrisonn, then they MUST sign a defensive minded defenseman to help the Caps keep the puck out of the net.

Forwards: The biggest question besides Nicklas Backstrom is not actually a free agent, but is Alexander Semin. Semin's contract was set to expire at the end of this season, but he signed a one year extension. Semin has the talent to be a top line left winger on most NHL teams, but happens to be on the same team as the best left winger in the world. Being that talented, he will expect a large contract. With the other superstars on the team, he might be just too expensive. Now that the team is fully focused on building for the playoffs, Semin's failure to produce in the postseason makes him expendable. The fact that he only signed for an extra year tells me the writing is on the wall and he will part ways with the Caps after the 2010-11 season. The Caps will not allow a player of Semin's calibur to leave without getting something in return and I will expect an offseason or a deadline trade. If the team acquires a notable left wing this summer, then Semin's tenure in DC will end sometime soon. More likely, however, is that the team will wait until the trade deadline to deal Semin when teams are more desperate for scoring talent. I felt Brendan Morrison was a fantastic free agent signing last summer and will be sorry to see him leave, but the Caps will not pursue him this offseason. Morrison is a second line caliber forward, but was a healthy scratch frequently in the regular season and twice in the team's seven playoff games. This tells me that the team will not sign him and signing Eric Belanger will become very important. He seems to enjoy playing in DC, saying after the team's improbable comeback against Chicago "We didn't do that in Minnesota" so my guess would be that he will be back in DC.

The Caps will try desperately to trade Michael Nylander again, but I doubt any team will be willing to pick up his large contract. Lending him out so that he does not contribute to the salary cap as they did this year is the most likely scenario for 2010-11 which is the last year of his contract. Boyd Kane is 31 and unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level, so unless the team wants to sign him for Hershey, he will be gone. The team is likely to sign Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, and Tomas Fleischmann, especially Fehr after his breakout season this year and these players seem unlikely to go anywhere else. Scott Walker was a deadline deal and I expect the Caps will not pursue him unless they want him to replace Jon Erskine (fingers crossed) as the team's fighter. As for the rest, the Caps will definitely want to sign Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, and Kyle Wilson. The only one I think could leave would be Giroux who has become an AHL superstar. Signing a big contract to 28 year old minor league player who rarely gets called up to Washington is not the direction the team will want to go in. Either he accepts a minor league, low contract, or he'll have to find himself another team.

Likely Lineup: I expect most of the free agents on the Caps' current roster that they pursue will sign with Washington again. A championship contender offering a chance to play with the best player in the world makes recruiting a lot easier, especially when most of these players developed in Hershey and Washington together. As for bringing in players, my best guess is that the team will pursue a center to replace Brendan Morrison and to help on the penalty kill, a left wing to replace Semin and provide an offensive threat both in the regular season and the playoffs, and a defenseman because even the Caps cannot ignore their defensive woes this season (I hope). If they are about to hand the reins over to Varlamov and Neuvirth, they will need will more help on the blue line. Unless the team expects Karl Alzner to turn into Chris Pronger this offseason, a defensive minded defenseman is a must. So here is my projected lineup for October without specific guesses as to what free agents the Caps bring in:

1st line: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble
2nd line: Semin (gone by trade deadline), Morrison's replacement, Laich
3rd line: Semin's replacement, Belanger, Fehr
4th line: Chimera, Steckle, Fleischmann

Defense Pairings: Green and Schultz, Carlson and Poti, Morrisonn and Sloan or Corvo's replacement (hopefully)

Goalies: Varlamov, Neuvirth

Other Roster Players: Bradley, Gordon, Laing, Erskine, Alzner