Expanding March Madness Part 2

Two rounds deep into the March Madness tournament, and the debate to expand the tournament is heating up. Because of unthinkable upsets like Northern Iowa over top seeded Kansas, St. Mary's over number two Villanova, and Cornell over both Temple and Wisconsin, support for adding more teams into the fold is gaining. If those lower seeds can compete and win, why not add them in?

Another argument points to the exclusivity of college basketball. A 65 team tournament allows approximately 19% of division one teams into the postseason. This is lower than the playoffs of the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL. To raise this would not really be opening the flood gates when college basketball is the most exclusive sport in America.

These are impressive arguments, but if you look at this tournament there are other important numbers you should take into account as well. Here is the breakdown of how many teams made the tournament from the major conferences: 6 out of 12 from the ACC, 6 out of 12 Big 12 teams, 8 out of 16 Big East teams, 5 out of 11 Big 10 teams, 2 out of 10 Pac 10 teams, and 4 out of 12 SEC teams. Clearly an off year for the Pac 10 who usually boasts major national competitors in UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona. For the most part, however, you have a little less than half of major conferences making the field, which is where you want it. Most ideas for expansion say 96 teams, so lets add the 32 teams from the NIT into this field. Now you have 9 out of 12 from the ACC, 7 out of 12 from the Big 12, 13 out of 16 from the Big East, 7 out of 11 from the Big 10, 3 out of 10 from the Pac 10, and 6 out of 12 from the SEC. While more of the mid majors will be in, this will allow far too many from the big conferences.

When talking about percentages, you are assuming a competitive level roughly equal across the league. Of course every sport has their "groups of death" and their weaker divisions (the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders in the same division?), but the level for professional teams is still relatively equal. That is just not true in college sports. The Big East isn't slightly better than the Big Sky, there's a huge gap. This doesn't mean teams from the Big Sky can't compete come March, we've all seen the upsets. What it does mean, however, is that any increase in the playoffs doesn't simply allow the mid majors more slots, it also gives more slots to the conferences that already have around half of their teams heading to the post season because of their high level of competition. Making the tournament for those teams ceases to be an accomplishment and becomes a necessity for coaches to keep their job, even more so than it is now. When 13 teams from the Big East are making the tournament, you better not be one of the 3 who aren't. March Madness will become what the bowl system is for college football; making it alone means very little, not making it at all means a lot.

When considering the percentages, keep in mind that while a 96 team tournament will have approximately 28% of division one teams playing, 62% of the big conference teams will be in, and that's based just on the numbers this season, it could be more. In the current 65 team set up, teams still have to earn their spot. To expand the tournament gives a huge advantage to all teams in the major conferences before the season even begins. North Carolina made the NIT with a 5-11 record in the ACC and a 19-16 overall. Texas Tech was 4-12 in the Big 12 and 19-16 overall. UConn was 7-11 in the Big East and as low as 19-16 overall. So for these teams it doesn't matter how bad you are in the conference as long as you are in one of those big conferences and stay above .500 overall. Deserving teams that are snubbed would be in, but it also dilutes the pool with teams like UConn who have a .542 win percentage. Is that really a deserving team?

Any expansion of the tournament would have to take into account the vast difference in competition among the conferences. Don't be fooled by the low overall percentages. This drag down the tournament with teams that really don't deserve to be there. Don't ruin the magic of the tournament by forcing in more possible "Cinderellas" or the clock may strike midnight on the excitement of March.