Strasburg Out 12-18 Months, Needs Tommy John Surgery

Stephen Strasburg will be out a whopping 12 to 18 months with a torn ligament in his right arm. This means that not only is his rookie season over, but his sophomore season might be done as well. Strasburg will have Tommy John surgery on Friday after an MRI showed the extent of his injury.

Strasburg's diagnosis came under some scrutiny when Rob Dibble commented that he should just "suck it up" and play. 12 to 18 months seems a bit steep, but this is how long it takes to come back from this type of surgery. Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmerman just came back from the same surgery which he had a year ago. This is not a case of the Nationals being over protective of their star, this was just a completely unfair comment from someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

Yes, the Nationals have been very cautious with him this season, but that's because it is very easy to mess up a future star pitcher. There are numerous examples of prospective star pitchers who amounted to little because of injury or because of teams asking too much too soon. The Nationals were determined not to let that happen, yet despite their precautions, injuries have been a problem. Strasburg was placed on the disabled list a month ago when he complained of tightness in his back and shoulder. Strasburg then tore his tendon in his third start back right when the team was debating whether they should shut him down for the rest of the season.

The short term affects of this are pretty bad. This is almost worst case scenario for the Nationals. After two straight 100 loss seasons, the Nationals finally began to convince some fans that they had the pieces in place to begin building this team, and Strasburg was an integral part of that. He has been the face of the franchise all season long and has taken attention away from what will most likely be the Nationals' fifth last place finish in the division in the last six seasons. The Nationals were even selling out games at home and on the road with people who wanted to see him pitch and he did not disappoint. Strasburg's rookie season stats are a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 68 innings, the best strikeout rate in the Major League. After establishing Strasburg as their franchise player, the team has little to draw fans for the rest of the season and most of next season. The only hope is the quick development of number one pick Bryce Harper. The Nationals could really use a full time draw rather than a pitcher to bring the fans back in.

As bad as this may seem presently, the long term affects might actually not be too bad. Injuries are always serious when it comes to pitchers because there is the chance that they never fully recover to the pitcher they were or could have been. The good news is that around 90% of pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery return to be just as good. While it is definitely something both Strasburg and the team need to keep an eye on, it is too early to worry that the future phenom's potential has already plummeted.

An interesting question that the team may have to ask themselves is whether they should bring Strasburg back at all next season. If Strasburg is ready to play by next September, will it be worth bringing him back? If the team is not in any sort of contention should they risk another injury for the valuable major league experience and fan draw or should they keep him back for the 2012 season? Something to keep an eye on.

For the near sighted this is pretty much the worst thing that could have happened. In reality, this may be the one long term injury that won't jeopardize his entire career. While I'm certainly disappointed that his season is already over, if the worst thing that happens from this is that Strasburg sits out a year, I'll be relieved.

The Clock is Ticking for the Nationals

After a promising start to the season, the Nationals went into the all star break in the familiar position of last place. Compared to the last two seasons this is actually an improvement, as the Nationals do not have the worst record in baseball and are on pace to win 71 games. Still, this is not where many hoped the team would be when Ted Lerner took over the team in 2006 and brought in Stan Kasten as team president to rebuild. Now, with many promising pieces coming together for this team, the Nationals are on the clock. This team needs to be a competitive team before Stephen Strasburg's contract expires or the core may fall apart.

The reason I set this goal for the team is because it will be VERY important to make sure Strasburg stays in DC and because this is not an unrealistic or unreasonable goal. Strasburg was one of the most hyped players coming out of the draft of all time. So far, he has lived up to expectations. In his seven major league games he has 61 strike outs and a 2.32 ERA. Yet, he has a 3-2 record. He will play a full season next year and, assuming a sophomore slump, I think Strasburg will be one of the best pitchers in the league in 3 years, if not the best. He is that good. Why, if you are that talented, would you continue to stay on a .500 team? Loyalty to the team that drafted you? Perhaps, but for big time players who want to win sometimes loyalty is not enough (Lebron James). Strasburg was born in Santee, California. He played college ball at San Diego State. When his contract expires, he may well consider moving back west. The Nationals MUST give him a reason to stay here. Sure, maybe he will decide he likes DC and will want to stay. I hope so. But the Nationals did not just draft Strasburg to fill seats, they drafted him to win games and help this team get better. The best way they can convince him to stay is to show him how good this team has been and will continue to be with him. A 71 win season does not do that.

Saying that this team needs to be a playoff team in 3 or 4 years is not unreasonable at all. The National's best season was their inaugural season in 2005 when they finished with a .500 record. Since then, they have been bottom dwellers. Now, the team is beginning to bring in a solid core. Pitching, the Achilles' heel of the Nationals for years, has been much better this season with the addition of Strasburg, Matt Capps, and the return of Livan Hernandez. Bryce Harper, if he can behave, will be a major asset to this team playing along side Ryan Zimmerman. The pieces are there, but the rebuilding needs to start showing more than just minor results. Besides, after five sub .500 seasons, is it really that unreasonable to want to see major improvement? When the Nationals first came to DC, games were always packed. Now, the seats are empty every night Strasburg is not playing. How much longer are DC fans suppposed to wait?

I think the first step for this team will be to re-sign Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham who will both be free agents at the end of the season. The two have hit a combined 37 home runs this season and with Zimmerman batting fourth, they make a formidable 4, 5, 6 batting lineup. Dunn actually leads the National League with 22 home runs. With the Nationals struggling at the plate this season (ranked 25th in runs, 20th in hits, 24th in RBIs, and 18th in batting average) you would like to see them keep two of their best hitters. I have had enough of this notion of "patience" and the idea that prospects will solve all of your problems. That time has passed. Do not let pieces of the puzzle walk because you are ok with setting the team back another two or three years so you can have more prospects develop. By the end of the 2010 season, barring a major comeback, the Nationals will have had five consecutive seasons with a sub .500 record. That is long enough. It is time to make a move up the standings.

Say what you want about Steinbrenner and the Yankees, but he did have one thing right. Every season you do not win the World Series is a failure. Plain and simple. Granted, some failures are worse than others, but that is the goal for each team each and every season, the Nationals included. In a few years, the Nationals are going to have to start convincing all those prospects that they tried to build the team with to stay in DC. That means the rebuild is taking too long. If not soon, at what point are you planning on bringing a playoff team to Washington? Now, you are on the clock to turn this around soon, or start all over.

Catching Up

As I've been gone for over a week a lot has happened in the world of sports so here are some quick stories to get me up to date:

Strasburg Dazzles in First Major League Starts
Stephen Strasburg made his highly anticipated MLB debut on June 8 against the Pittsburgh Pirates and put together a performance that left Nationals' fans excited more than ever about their young franchise. He pitched 7 innings allowing only 4 hits and striking out 14. In his second start against Cleveland on Sunday, he put together what many analysts consider to be an even more impressive outing. Strasburg battled a hostile crowd and a disintegrating pitcher's mound for 8 strikeouts and 2 hits in over 5 innings. The Nationals may have something really special in this kid and they need to start building around him. Excitement in the team has not been this high since they moved to Washington from Montreal, and it won't last forever. If the Nationals hope to build on the current interest, they will have to build a team around Strasburg sooner rather than later.

Nationals Select Harper with Top Overall Pick in the Draft
With all the excitement over Strasburg, it is easy to forget that there are other things happening in baseball, but the draft did take place the Nationals hope they have just taken another step forward by selecting Bryce Harper. Harper is the first junior college player ever selected number one overall in the MLB draft, but his talent and performance last season makes this no real surprise. In 66 games he has hit 98 RBIs and 31 home runs, breaking the previous school record of 12. The league in which he played, the Scenic West Athletic Conference, uses wooden bats so there is no issue of inflated batting stats as you see with players in division one baseball who use aluminum bats. There are questions, however, about Harper's character. Harper was ejected twice in 2010, including during the National Junior College World Series. After being struck out, Harper drew a line in the dirt with his bat indicating where he thought the pitch actually was and was ejected. As this was his second ejection of the year he was suspended for two games and his team lost the series. Many have described Harper as an arrogant jerk and scouts have reported he has a disturbingly high sense of entitlement. Well, that will happen when your parents allow you to get your GED after two years of high school so you can start your professional career sooner and you get drafted number one overall at the age of 17. That's right, 17. Harper may have some growing up to do before he shows up in the Nationals' lineup.

USA Manages a 1-1 Draw with Favored England
USA opened up the 2010 World Cup with their highly anticipated game against England on Saturday and managed an impressive 1-1 draw. England always comes into the World Cup with high expectations and talent to match, but remain dreadfully inconsistent in international play (they failed to qualify for the last Euro Cup). USA came into the tournament with high hopes after an impressive second place finish in the Confederation's Cup a year ago, but also with the cloud of the last World Cup's terrible finish (0-2-1, including a loss to Ghana) and the daunting task of facing England to start. Four minutes in, England embarrassed the US team with a goal from captain Steven Garrard which made the defense look outmatched, unprepared, and just plain sloppy. The US really picked things up after that and matched England step for step. What many no doubt remember from this game, is goalie Robert Green's failure to corrale Clint Dempsy's innocent shot which tied the game at 1. Most would say the US was lucky to walk away with a tie, but after England's quick start, the US looked much better and even had the better chances. Late in the second half, Jozy Altidore burned England's defensemen and banged a shot off the post that would have given the Yanks the lead. Tim Howard, who was just cleared to play in Friday's game against Slovenia, looked very solid in net and US looked every bit England's equal late in the game.

What is important now is for USA not to have any feelings of "mission accomplished." True, they walked away with a point against the best team in their group, but the pressure is on after Slovenia's win over Algeria. In the last World Cup, the US managed to tie eventual champion Italy 1-1, but then lost to Ghana 2-1 in a game that could have earned them a spot in the second round. A 1-1 draw against England means little if the USA cannot follow up against Slovenia and Algeria.

College Shake Ups
When I left, there was talk of Big 10 expansion. When I came back, all of the sudden college conferences seemed to be breaking at the seams. While there seems to be a new story everyday, here is what has happened so far: Colorado is leaving the Big 12 for the Pac 10, Nebraska is leaving the Big 12 for the Big 10, and Boise State is leaving the WAC for the Mountain West. The Texas shakeup has been avoided for the time being, keeping Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State in the Big 12. I was surprised by how deep this story went. When I heard the Big 10 extended offers to Nebraska, Notre Dame, Missouri, and Rutgers, the only team I thought would consider the move was Rutgers. I was very surprised not only that Nebraska accepted, but that they did so because most of the conference was considering moving as well. The Big 12 is considered second only to the SEC in college football and I was shocked that so many were considering leaving the conference. Silly me, I forgot what drives all these decisions: money. In the end, the Big 10 Network and the money it brings is what won Nebraska over.

And let's not forget Boise State who has gotten lost in all the speculation over Texas. The Pac 10 really dropped the ball by not getting Boise State. I do not know all the details of how this happened, but if the Pac 10 did not do absolutely everything they could to bring Boise State in, then they messed up. Boise State is a major competitor in college football and seemingly the only thing keeping them out of the National Championship game was their non BCS conference. Boise State would have brought a lot of interest, media coverage, and revenue to a conference who's traditional powerhouse has now been banned from postseason play for 2 years. It may have turned out that the Pac 10 did pursue Boise State and they chose the Mountain West anyway to help out fellow "ignored by the BCS" contenders TCU, BYU, and Utah. If that's the case, then you cannot fault the Pac 10, but this really seemed like a good fit to me and they must be kicking themselves now for not getting it done. What this means for the Mountain West is that they are going to push hard for a BCS bid and no doubt, because the BCS is run by morons, they will be ignored until conference expansion destroys the Big 12 or the Big East. Still, the Mountain West is now poised to become a power conference very soon.