The Washington Nationals wrapped up another lack luster season this year finishing with 59 wins, by far the worst record in baseball. The honeymoon appears to be over as there is clearly mounting frustration among the fan base. Apparently people didn't realize that taking the team from Montreal meant taking the Expos. Yet, many remain hopeful after the (eventual) signing of pitching star Stephen Strasburg. This certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. While the Nationals have proven they can at least put up competitive offensive numbers (ninth in the National League in runs scored), they are the second worst defensive team in the league (second to Baltimore by only 2 runs). Defense in baseball begins and ends with pitching, so signing Strasburg is a good first step, assuming the Nationals do what's right. Sorry Nats fans, but that means Strasburg is going to have to wait.
Strasburg may be good enough already to enter the Nationals' rotation, but that's not because he's ready. The Nationals' pitching is just that bad, ranked 28th in the league with a 5.00 ERA. For an NL team, that's bad. Adding one pitcher is a start, but barring some major off season moves or dramatic player development over the off season, the Nationals don't look like they will have much going for them next season. This makes me question whether Strasburg should play at all in the majors next season.
Now I know many people out there really want to see the kid play and it's hard to argue against his numbers. In 2009, while pitching for San Diego State University, Strasburg finished with a 13-1 record, a 1.32 ERA, 195 strike out over 109 innings pitched, and one no-hitter. Impressive to say the least. Yet, this was against college players and in the Mountain West Conference, not one of the major baseball conferences. I'm not saying his accomplishments aren't impressive, his numbers would be impressive if he was pitching against peewee teams, but facing major league batters takes physical and mental preparation. He needs to develop into a major league pitcher and mentally prepare himself for not being the dominant pitcher he was in college before he steps onto the mound for the Nationals.
This probably isn't what the Nationals' front office wants to hear. In five seasons, the Nationals best season was their first when they finished with a .500 record of 81-81. Since then the team has really struggled with four losing seasons and back to back 100 loss seasons in 2008 and 2009. Attendance has dropped as well. In 2005 the Nationals were ranked 9th in the league in attendance, but this dropped all the way down to 24th in the 2009 season. With a brand new stadium and a dwindling fan base, the Nationals are looking for a draw to bring people in for the 2010 season. Strasburg seems like the perfect solution. But history is full of rushed prospects with disappointing major league careers. Why risk it? The Nationals will not compete next year and while the fans may be impatient, it's not the front office's job to please the fans. They are there to build a successful team. I just don't see how does throwing Strasburg to the wolves next year helps him. Let's hope the Nationals can look at the big picture and not just worry about their popularity. Winning, despite how long it takes, will always bring the fans back.
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8 years ago
I'm not sure I agree. Teams can go from worst to first pretty quickly in modern baseball if they get their act together. Look at the Rockies and the Rays. What it takes is excellent pitching. The Nats have the necessary hitting to contend, especially if Nyjer Morgan and Jesus Flores both come back healthy and play full seasons. They need to solve their middle-infield problem, but Ian Desmond shows promise. Maybe they can convert Guzman into a second baseman, or maybe they can make a trade. With good pitching, and luck on injuries, they could contend in 2010 despite having had the worst record in baseball two straight years.
ReplyDeleteThat brings us to Strasburg. He's young and inexperienced, of course, but he's not the typical #1 draft choice because he's not straight out of high school. Like Ryan Zimmerman, who came from UVA, he may well be ready immediately. Zimmerman drove in 110 runs the year after he was drafted. Strasburg could be equally good as a pitcher the year after he was drafted. There are no guarantees, of course, but there are rational reasons -- not just irrational wishes -- to be hopeful.
Strasburg, a healthy Scott Olsen, an ever-improving John Lannan, and maybe Livan Hernandez and Craig Stammen or J.D. Martin could be a very respectable starting rotation. I'm more worried about the bullpen, but Clippard looked good at the end of the year, Burnett should come back healthy, and MacDougal proved to be an ok (though certainly not outstanding) closer. I'm not foolishly optimistic, but I think the team COULD be pretty good next year, and Strasburg could be a part of that.
My biggest worry is that they bring in Strasburg next season before he's ready to bring in fans. I just want him to come into the majors for the right reasons. To throw him into the rotation before he's ready could really mess up his development.
ReplyDeleteBeing given the opportunity to play against the best "too early" can't possibly hurt a player's physical development. It can only hurt his psychological development. The best players can withstand early promotion.
ReplyDeleteI know it's a different sport, but look at Troy Aikman. He went 1-15 his first year as a starter (with his only win, of course, coming against the Redskins in the Redskins' home stadium). The effect on his "development"? Not much, apparently. He went on to win 3 Super Bowls.
For every Troy Aikman, there are several Heath Shulers. And baseball has its epic failures too. But there are also baseball pitchers who succeed immediately (Dwight Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela) and baseball pitchers who struggle early but later become All-Stars (Ben Sheets, Nolan Ryan). Unless a pitcher has a fragile psyche, he doesn't need to be kept out of a starting rotation in the major leagues to protect his development.
If a pitcher is going to a team that has too many good starters for him to crack the starting rotation while he's young, it's a different story: he'll get more work and therefore develop more in the Minor Leagues. But the Nats hardly have that problem!