Moves in New Jersey Force Move by Capitals

As the Olympics come to a close, its back to business for the NHL. The trade deadline is quickly approaching (March 3), and George McPhee no longer can afford to watch it pass by. A few weeks ago I wrote about McPhee's reluctance to make any trade deadline moves. "I really don't know why we'd change anything. The team is performing about as well as it can. Why change the mix?" He has always been cautious when it comes to making big trades because he worries about the future of the team. The problem is that now the team is a major competitor for the Stanley Cup. For McPhee to intentionally handicap the team is inexcusable and if last season is any indication, making no moves does in fact handicap the team.

What McPhee needs to ask himself is whether winning one Stanley Cup is more important than being a competitive team for 5-10 years. It is a tough question because trade deadline moves never guarantee a Stanley Cup, but neither does trying to hold the team together. While a big trade could potentially hurt the Caps' future, some players may get impatient if they feel McPhee is not willing to do what it takes to bring the Cup to Washington. What would be the point if Washington missed out on this opportunity and in three years we looked back and realized this was our best chance?

Last season, every team around the Caps got better at the trade deadline, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champions (who will not be named). Now, McPhee needs to take a long hard look at New Jersey. The Devils picked up superstar winger Ilya Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers before the Olympic break. So far, the result have not been anything to write home about, in six games the Devils have won twice and Kovalchuk has only one goal and four assists. The problem is that the Devils have beaten the Capitals three out of four times this season, have one of the best goalies in the NHL, and have allowed 33 fewer goals than the Capitals with the lowest goals against in the league. Of course you can counter that the Capitals are currently 13 points ahead of them in the standings (a huge margin for the number one and two teams in a conference) and have scored a whopping 85 more goals. This is why the Devils traded for Kovalchuk, they need that offensive boost. I am a firm believer, however, in the saying offense wins games, defense wins championships. Playoff hockey is very different from regular season hockey in that defense becomes the deciding factor for most series. When the playoffs start, I would have picked the Devils as the favorite in a coin toss over the Caps, but now with Kovalchuk I think they have really pulled ahead. The strength of New Jersey's defense and goaltending mixed with the new offensive threat the Devils present puts them ahead of the Capitals.

Washington can't just be worried with New Jersey alone. If there is one thing you can take away from the Olympic tournament, it's that Ryan Miller is a top goaltender and his ability can really vault Buffalo into the conference conversation. Pittsburgh has proven they can compete come playoff time and that they are willing to make deadline trades to do so. You can expect many more trades come March 3 as teams look to counter the offensive strength of the Caps.

The bottom line is that the Capitals must bring in a big name defenseman. While Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov, and Michal Neuvirth have all played well, each has their problems. Theodore is known for his inconsistency (see game one against the Rangers in the 09 playoffs), Varlamov has been troubled by a groin injury for two months, and Neuvirth's strong play is frequently mixed with rookie mistakes. The Capitals currently rank 17th in the league in goals against, behind probable playoff competitors New Jersey, Buffalo, Boston, Philadelphia, and Montreal.

The Capitals need to look at the teams that have no hope of making the playoffs and have thrown in the towel: Florida, NY Islanders, Carolina, Toronto, Edmonton, Columbus, and maybe Minnesota and St. Louis. Of those teams, you can throw out Carolina and Florida since division opponents are not likely to make trades with one another. Look at the blue lines of the teams left. McPhee is going to have a problem making a trade since he is reluctant to give up any prospects and that's mostly what these teams will ask for, but if he's willing to trade captain Chris Clark, he can find someone else he's willing to let go. Don't forget, two years ago the Caps managed to pick up goalie Cristobal Huet with only a second round draft pick. If McPhee wants to make a trade, I guarantee he can find someone that will listen.

Even with a 14 game winning streak, the Capitals really seemed to struggle as they frequently played from behind. In the six games prior to the Olympic break the Capitals allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game. That's just not good enough. In the past two post seasons, the Caps weren't able to change their style for playoff hockey and they were sent home because of it. If the Caps can't make it deep into this postseason because McPhee won't make a deadline trade, they will have missed a golden opportunity.