Thursday, February 25, 2010

DC March Madness, Where do they Stand?

With the season winding down, teams all over the country are trying to get that last big win to make sure they'll have a spot in March Madness. Many DC fans are wondering who's in, who needs to pad their resume, and who should start recruiting early this year. This is where the local teams stand (in no particular order):

George Washington (15-11, 5-8) No chance. Usually a bubble team with anxious fans heading into march, it's back to the drawing board this year for the Colonials. After opening the season 4-0, this team has been average at best. It's only real notable win this season is Princeton and that's nothing to write home about. They have really struggled in conference play and I don't see any reason why that would end come tournament time. The Colonials won't challenge for the automatic Atlantic 10 bid.

Richmond (22-6, 11-2) They're in. A great conference record is not always good enough for these mid-major conferences, but Richmond has some non-conference wins to back it up. Wins against Florida and ODU are impressive and while Mississippi State and Missouri aren't great this year, wins like these show that Richmond can compete with the big boys. Even that sometimes isn't enough, but Richmond currently sits at number 24 in the rankings. Being ranked reflects the confidence selectors have in this team. If a team is good enough to be in the top 25, they are good enough to be in a tournament between the top 65. After a 17 point blowout of conference opponent temple, Richmond is my pick to win the A-10, but will receive a bid even if they don't.

Hampton (10-17, 6-8) and Howard (7-22, 6-8) Keep dreaming.

Maryland (20-7, 10-3) I love talking about Maryland because they are continually overrated by DC fans who proclaim them title bound if they can beat St. Mary's school for the deaf and blind. The problem is, the ultimate enemy of all the Maryland faithful is reality. Tell me, who has Maryland beaten this year? The fact is, as of now, there is one team in the ACC that is ranked, Duke, who destroyed Maryland by 21 points. A good ACC record may not be good enough by itself to get Maryland in. Take that away and Maryland has done nothing this season. This team has no big wins and a loss to William and Mary really hurts regardless of the kind of year the Tribe is having. Don't get me wrong, Maryland will most likely get a bid. Even if the ACC is having a bad year, a good conference record means a lot. What I am saying is that there is no guarantee because the entire ACC has underachieved and Maryland has an unimpressive non conference resume. They need to beat both Virginia Tech and UVA or just Duke before heading into the ACC tournament or they will be on the bubble. If Maryland were to only win one of their last three and then lose in the first round of the conference tournament, I would not be surprised if Maryland had to watch from home.

Virginia (14-12, 5-8) UVA has really failed to take advantage of a weak ACC. They still have a below .500 conference record and really bad loses to South Florida, Penn State, and Auburn. Sitting atop a five game losing streak, UVA's only hope is to win the ACC tournament. The only reason I even bring it up is because the ACC has been pretty much that bad this year.

Virginia Tech (21-6, 8-5) Tech right now is sitting on the bubble. They have non conference wins over Iowa, Penn State, and Seton Hall. They also have, however, one very bad loss to North Carolina. Despite being the defending National Champions, the Tar Heels have only three conference wins. That is not a group you want to be in. The reason why Tech is in good shape is because this and Boston College are their only bad losses this season and the committee is more likely to forgive bad conference losses than they are non conference. Still, Tech needs to finish strong to make sure.

Georgetown (19-7, 9-6) No doubt here. The Big East really established itself as the best conference this season without question. This conference is loaded. With wins over Louisville, Temple, Pitt, Villanova, UConn, and Duke, this team can afford a loss to ODU and Rutgers. This team will cruise into March Madness and most likely will see a three seed.

American (9-19, 6-7) and Navy (13-15, 7-6) No chance unless they win their conference tournament. Stranger things have happened, the Patriot League stinks.

Old Dominion (22-8, 14-3) Another bubble team. They have one win over Georgetown and are currently dominating their conference, but a lot of bad losses make winning the conference tournament a must. The committee is not going to select a team with losses to Missouri, Mississippi State, Dayton, North Eastern, and Northern Iowa unless they have to.

George Mason (17-12, 12-5) Just not enough on the resume for this team. Mid majors don't have the luxury of hiding behind a good conference record. All five conference losses hurt. Mason really needed to beat Villanova to have a chance, but that's a tall order. If they don't win the conference, they don't make it to March.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-7, 11-6) VCU probably has the best chance of any of the CAA teams of getting an invitation to March madness because they have the most impressive non conference wins against Oklahoma and Richmond. A season ending win over ODU and a strong conference tournament will go a long way towards helping VCU's bubble resume.

William and Mary(19-9, 11-6) What kind of a team beats Maryland and Wake Forest to begin the season and get actual tournament consideration and then loses to Iona and Towson? I was worried WM would actually be good this year, but now they are getting back to WM basics: losing to teams they should beat in games they need to win. Well done. In the end two ACC wins won't be good enough. They need to win the CAA tournament, but ODU and VCU have really established themselves as the class of the CAA. Still, I think WM will see its second ever NIT bid which is a step in the right direction.

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