Friday, April 2, 2010

Capitals Face Tough Questions on How to Prepare for Playoffs

With the regular season set to end for Washington on April 11 against Boston, the Capitals have already sealed the Southeast division and the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Now the Capitals have five games remaining and are facing the same questions that plagues the best teams in every sport every year regarding how to best prepare for the playoffs. Should they rest their best players, take these last few games seriously, show the playoff lineups...? Every situation has been tried and has worked or not worked at some time. The question really is what is the best policy for this team specifically?

When studying the Capitals, one realizes that when this team is firing on all cylinders, it's scary. This team has beaten Pittsburgh twice including a game in which they trailed 4-1 in the second period and Chicago in a game in which they trailed 3-0 and they did it without Alexander Ovechkin who had been ejected. In fact, this team is so deep that they still have a winning record in games without Ovechkin (7-2). They have an 18-3-2 record within the division. While it may be true that the Southeast division is one of the weakest in the NHL, this is still impressive because these are the teams that know the Capitals the best. Washington leads all teams in the NHL in points with 112. They have scored 31 more goals than any team in the league and have a leading goal differential of +78 which is 26 higher than second place. Of course every team has their weaknesses, and for the Capitals it's their defense. But Washington was the best team in the league before the trade deadline and they still managed to get better with the acquisition of Scott Walker, Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo, and Milan Jurcina.

The Capitals certainly look like the team to beat heading into the playoffs, but there are some problems surfacing. A problem the Capitals have had all year is letting in early goals. Even in the midst of their incredible 14 game winning streak the Capitals constantly had to play from behind. While they have proven repeatedly that they are never out of a game until the clock hits zero with numerous multi goal and last minute comebacks, they cannot continue this trend in the playoffs. Many may ask why it matters if the Capitals continue to win and the answer is that the playoffs are a completely different game. Of the last 23 Presidents' trophy winners (team with the best record in the regular season which the Capitals will most likely win this season) only 7 have won the Stanley Cup. The Capitals won't get points for forcing overtime anymore, they will still have to win the game. It was clear at the end of that 14 game winning streak the emotional toll was having an affect on the team, now imagine adding the intensity of playoff hockey. That kind of pressure will cripple most teams. One reason for the Capitals' collapse in game seven against the hated Penguins last season is that they could not sustain the pressure and intensity for two straight seven game series after beating the Rangers by the skin of their teeth. A team as good as the Capitals should not be playing from behind. The longer you allow a weaker team to remain competitive in a game and in a series, the harder it will be to take control. The Capitals just cannot rely on last minute comebacks in the playoffs, they need to put teams away early which they can easily do with their overwhelming offensive power.

One thing that head coach Bruce Boudreau has to keep in mind is this team's recent playoff history. In the last two seasons the Capitals lost three out of their first four games. They managed to force a game seven both times, but neither series should have come to that. Recent games, including their season trend of letting in early goals, show that this team sometimes has trouble turning on the switch. If this team takes the next few weeks off, then they could find themselves again dropping a few games to start the playoffs this year. This cannot happen. The Capitals really need to prove to themselves more than anyone else that they are good enough to win. A four or five game series will get that message across. A seven game series against the 8th team in the east would not. Resting the players really is not an option here.

Of course, if you don't rest you risk fatigue late in the playoffs and the Capitals want a deep playoff run. Since the trade deadline, Boudreau has not been shy about scratching every player on the team minus the stars Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green. This is a perfect situation. Boudreau needs to let every player know that playoff spots are at stake. If you want to play in the playoffs, you're going to have to show what you've got. Players will play hard when they get the chance, but you can still scratch players and rest them. A few injuries are making that a bit difficult, but the players sitting out now are the players that will need the most rest to be at 100% come the playoffs. As for the stars, you can't scratch them, but you can reduce their shifts. Give them less playing time and they will give you everything they've got during those shifts. Also, he needs to make winning the Presidents trophy a goal they need to strive for. This team struggles when they have nothing to play for.

This is also a time to start putting together the playoff lines. One problem of course is that the remaining five games include two against possible first round foe Boston, one against possible first round foe Atlanta, and one against Pittsburgh. You may not want to show your hand to teams you may be facing, but you may also want to feel out who works in what situations against teams.

Boudreau now has a unique situation in which he can scout first hand against his probable first round opponent. It's important that the Capitals do not sleep walk through the first few games of the first round and cannot hold back on the reins too much for the rest of the season. There are ways for Boudreau to continue pushing and keeping his team strong while still not pushing too hard. This could be the year for the Capitals if they do things right!

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