What a Difference Two Games Make...

Two games into Washington's playoff matchup and you can already throw out all of the analysis and predictions regarding what would happen in this series. Montreal came into the playoffs with the 23rd ranked offense but has managed 8 goals in two games against the Capitals and only two have come from their 2nd ranked power play. Many Washington sports analysts expected the Capitals to advance in five games while many Motnreal sports analysts expected the Capitals in advance in four. Yet Montreal stunned the best team in the NHL in game one in overtime and looked in control for most of game two. Things have gotten off to a weird start.

Montreal goaltender Jaroslav Halak looked fantastic in his first playoff start stopping 45 of 47 shots and leading the Canadiens to an improbable game one win. In game two, however, he seemed to struggle allowing 5 goals on just 37 shots. Alexander Ovechkin even stated he saw Halak's arm shaking late in the game. With Washington's potent offense, Halak has to be better. If we see another 6 goal game for the Capitals, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carey Price in for game four.

The biggest surprise for Montreal has to be their offense. They averaged 2.65 goals per game during the regular season but have managed 8 so far in just two games. Heading into the playoffs, I thought the Canadiens' strategy would be to try the weather the storm, agitate and try to force penalties, and win through powerplays and counter attacks. Now, however, Montreal is proving that their offense can win on its own. That could spell trouble for the Capitals who are having some troubles in goal and on defense.

Game one had to be absolutely baffling for the Washington Capitals. Looking at this series it was believed their two biggest weaknesses were their goaltending and 25th ranked penalty kill matching against the second best power play. If you had told me that the Capitals would get great goaltending and allow 1 power play goal in 4 opportunities in game one, I would have thought "mission accomplished." Not so. Despite Theodore's heroics, the Capitals dropped game one in overtime. Then, the Capitals found themselves down 0-2 twelve minutes into game two after allowing only 2 shots. To allow only 2 shots in 8 minutes of play is impressive, but it is meaningless if the other team scores on those 2 shots. Now Boudreau has a choice to make for game 3. Theodore may have had a bad game, but he has played great since January going 20-0-3. Would starting Semyon Varlamov, who had an average game after replacing Theodore, really be the right move? Short answer, yes. You have to go with the goalie that wins and Varlamov won the game. It may not have been pretty, but he got the job done. Putting Theodore back in for game three in a city he has not played well in would be a disaster. What would happen if Theodore started and played terribly? Boudreau would be lambasted over the decision and the team would find itself in a 2-1 playoff deficit with their confidence shaken. Varlamov's first NHL start was at Montreal and he allowed only 1 goal. Starting Theodore would have long term playoff implications as well. Whether Boudreau will confess to it or not, I believe he came into these playoffs expecting to use both goalies. Analysts may not like it, but he has done it for years in the AHL with success. If Theodore starts tonight and does not play well, that ship has sailed. He can't play Theodore again in Montreal period, even if Varlamov doesn't play well either. If Varlamov plays, Boudreau at least has the option of playing Theodore again. I expect Boudreau will play Varlamov until he has a bad game and then go back to Theodore as he did for most of the regular season. It's a risk, but with this system the Capitals managed the best record in the league and the most dominant regular season in recent memory.

Defense for the Capitals is also a major issue. Remember when I said maybe Jon Carlson should sit? Scratch that. He's been one of, if not the best, defenseman for the Capitals so far in the playoffs. The worst? Mike Green. It's not because he has 0 points so far, it's because defensively Green has downright stunk. You can blame Green for at least 2 of Montreal's 5 goals in game two. If Green isn't producing offensively it really doesn't hurt the team that much. They can score without him. When a defenseman plays poorly defensively, however, it always hurts the team. What we've seen from Green so far has been unacceptable. Boudreau already took him off the powerplay as a message, but Boudreau has to make sure Green is thinking defense first, offense second.

Tonight another major factor will be introduced into the series. Montreal's stadium, the Bell Centre, provides probably the biggest home ice advantage in the NHL. Hockey is king and Montreal has won more Stanley Cups than any other team in the NHL and as a result the Canadiens have developed quite a following. It will be interesting to see how both teams react to the crowd tonight especially in such a critical game.

The Capitals were the better team in game one for the first 40 minutes and in game two for the last 20 minutes and 30 seconds. This team knows they can be the better team for 60 minutes so let's hope we start to see that tonight.