Lebron James on the Clock

Lebron James' 2009-2010 season has come to a close and the questions about where he will be next season have already begun swarming. Everyone is speculating about what he will do as a free agent, whether he will stay in Cleveland or if he will leave and where. I have heard every single thing he has said scrutinized and every possibility analyzed. Among the analysis are several intriguing points and several stupid guesses. I figured I should try to clarify the possibilities and add my own guess as to what he will do.

Quick note: What I write that he is thinking and where I think he will go are total guesses. I could be way off because I have no idea what Lebron is thinking, but the fact of the matter is that none of the big analysts do either. All the guesses I have heard are just guesses because Lebron has been pretty tight lipped on his intentions so I cannot be more wrong than everybody else.

I believe there will be two things Lebron looks for when trying to decide where to go. The first and most important thing is that he wants to win a championship. This is the most important thing on his mind. He has been in the league for seven seasons and still has yet to win. The second thing that makes this more tricky is that I believe he wants to help resurrect a franchise and then lead them to a championship. This sounds odd, but bear with me. Part of Michael Jordan's legacy is that he took a team with nothing, the Chicago Bulls, and turned them into a dynasty. Kevin Garnett went to a terrible Boston team with a proud past and won a championship. For someone of Lebron's caliber, I do not think he wants to simply join a playoff caliber team to get them over the hump, he wants to resurrect a franchise and build his own dynasty. Cleveland was initially a perfect fit because he was offered that chance.

Cleveland still remains a great fit for him for several reasons. Lebron grew up in Akron so this is his home town team. He loves staying at home, he loves visiting his old school and his old gym, and he clearly wants to win in Cleveland. He has still yet to deliver the ultimate prize to the Cavaliers and many think that to leave now is to admit defeat and will tarnish his legacy. Also, after years of letting Lebron carry the team on his shoulders, owner Dan Gilbert has finally shown that he is committed to bringing a championship team together. Over the last few seasons Cleveland began acquiring big name players for a championship run including Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal, and Antawn Jamison. As Lebron's current team, Cleveland can offer Lebron more money than any other team. Knowing that the future of this franchise is tied heavily to Lebron, Gilbert is going to do whatever it takes to keep him around.

While it will be hard to leave his home, I think Lebron will be gone. Money is not going to really factor into his decision. No one is going to be dumb enough to try and lowball him and he will get a big contract no matter where he goes. I just think Lebron is frustrated with Cleveland. Yes, they have done more in the past two seasons to win a championship then they did before, but it still is not working. Second round exits are not what he was expecting. At this point with a strong team around him he will probably look to the coach as the missing piece of the puzzle. Mike Brown was badly out-coached by Doc Rivers and last season by Stan Van Gundy. I believe Brown will be fired but it will be too little too late. Even with a strong team around him, Lebron still needs to carry them. Every once in a while, Kobe Bryant has a bad game but the Lakers' team around him can still steal a game. Cleveland falls apart without Lebron.

The key to Lebron's decision is Kevin Garnett. Look at what he has done with his career. Garnett was drafted by Minnesota in 1995 and played there for 12 years. He was never able to win a championship and then finally signed with Boston in 2007. He came in with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and this trio was able to build a proud franchise back up and win a championship in 2008. While Garnett teamed up with two other superstars, he was still seen as the key guy. Also, and most importantly, no one talks about Minnesota as a failure. What people remember is the success he has had in Boston. The mold has been set. Team up with superstars and resurrect a proud franchise. Success in the end, is what matters. Essentially, the only way for Cleveland to keep Lebron is to fire Brown and bring in one of the other several free agent superstars available, but that might not be enough for a frustrated James.

So what would he do and where would he go? If he truly is frustrated with Cleveland, what he will do is start talking with another free agent. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemaire, and Dirk Nowitzki are all available. He will talk with a superstar and make plans to join the same team. As for where he would go, there are many guesses but the leading candidates seem to be New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, or Los Angeles (Clippers). You can go ahead and throw Los Angeles out of the mix. No one says, "I want to win a championship, I'm going to be a Clipper!" LA was not the worst team last season, but the stigma of the Clippers still hangs over the team. Imagine if Adrian Peterson left Minnesota to become a Detroit Lion. Even the Kobe/Lebron rivalry possibility would not be enough to bring in Lebron.

A lot of people see Chicago as a likely possibility because they are already a playoff team and have the best chance of winning a championship quickly. If Lebron truly feels that coaching is what's missing in Cleveland, he is not going to go to Chicago where they have no coach. Also, while he does want a championship he is still 25. He still wants to build a team and still has time to do it. This takes both Chicago and Miami off the list. Miami won a championship behind Wade and was the fifth ranked team in the playoffs this season. If he still has not won by the time he is 30 he may consider going to a playoff team, but I do not think he is that desperate yet.

This leaves New York and New Jersey. How do such lousy teams make sense? New Jersey is a contender because they can win the draft lottery. Bringing in Lebron, Bosh, and John Wall (probable first overall pick) changes the team completely. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov is also a big spender who will do what it takes to make New Jersey a contender. The major contender, however, is New York. The Knicks already have coach Mike D'Antoni, a well respected NBA coach who was a constant contender in the west with Phoenix. Of all the coaches of all the teams Lebron is considering at the moment, he is the best. Cleveland will need to find someone as notable as D'Antoni to have any chance. Heading to New York, the market, the city, and the franchise will certainly be enticing. Mix in the head coach and the second superstar that Lebron would want to bring with him, and you already have a brand new New York team with the money to bring in whoever else the team may be missing. New York offers a big city, a big market, a good coach, and a franchise to build. All of these are things Lebron James will be looking for.

Of all the possibilities, New York makes the most sense. Of course, should New Jersey win the draft lottery, you cannot count them out. I believe both are more likely than Lebron staying in Cleveland. Of course, free agency does not start until July 1 so we will have to wait and see, assuming we can stomach the ridiculous amount of media attention that will follow his every move for the next two months.