Lebron James on the Clock

Lebron James' 2009-2010 season has come to a close and the questions about where he will be next season have already begun swarming. Everyone is speculating about what he will do as a free agent, whether he will stay in Cleveland or if he will leave and where. I have heard every single thing he has said scrutinized and every possibility analyzed. Among the analysis are several intriguing points and several stupid guesses. I figured I should try to clarify the possibilities and add my own guess as to what he will do.

Quick note: What I write that he is thinking and where I think he will go are total guesses. I could be way off because I have no idea what Lebron is thinking, but the fact of the matter is that none of the big analysts do either. All the guesses I have heard are just guesses because Lebron has been pretty tight lipped on his intentions so I cannot be more wrong than everybody else.

I believe there will be two things Lebron looks for when trying to decide where to go. The first and most important thing is that he wants to win a championship. This is the most important thing on his mind. He has been in the league for seven seasons and still has yet to win. The second thing that makes this more tricky is that I believe he wants to help resurrect a franchise and then lead them to a championship. This sounds odd, but bear with me. Part of Michael Jordan's legacy is that he took a team with nothing, the Chicago Bulls, and turned them into a dynasty. Kevin Garnett went to a terrible Boston team with a proud past and won a championship. For someone of Lebron's caliber, I do not think he wants to simply join a playoff caliber team to get them over the hump, he wants to resurrect a franchise and build his own dynasty. Cleveland was initially a perfect fit because he was offered that chance.

Cleveland still remains a great fit for him for several reasons. Lebron grew up in Akron so this is his home town team. He loves staying at home, he loves visiting his old school and his old gym, and he clearly wants to win in Cleveland. He has still yet to deliver the ultimate prize to the Cavaliers and many think that to leave now is to admit defeat and will tarnish his legacy. Also, after years of letting Lebron carry the team on his shoulders, owner Dan Gilbert has finally shown that he is committed to bringing a championship team together. Over the last few seasons Cleveland began acquiring big name players for a championship run including Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal, and Antawn Jamison. As Lebron's current team, Cleveland can offer Lebron more money than any other team. Knowing that the future of this franchise is tied heavily to Lebron, Gilbert is going to do whatever it takes to keep him around.

While it will be hard to leave his home, I think Lebron will be gone. Money is not going to really factor into his decision. No one is going to be dumb enough to try and lowball him and he will get a big contract no matter where he goes. I just think Lebron is frustrated with Cleveland. Yes, they have done more in the past two seasons to win a championship then they did before, but it still is not working. Second round exits are not what he was expecting. At this point with a strong team around him he will probably look to the coach as the missing piece of the puzzle. Mike Brown was badly out-coached by Doc Rivers and last season by Stan Van Gundy. I believe Brown will be fired but it will be too little too late. Even with a strong team around him, Lebron still needs to carry them. Every once in a while, Kobe Bryant has a bad game but the Lakers' team around him can still steal a game. Cleveland falls apart without Lebron.

The key to Lebron's decision is Kevin Garnett. Look at what he has done with his career. Garnett was drafted by Minnesota in 1995 and played there for 12 years. He was never able to win a championship and then finally signed with Boston in 2007. He came in with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and this trio was able to build a proud franchise back up and win a championship in 2008. While Garnett teamed up with two other superstars, he was still seen as the key guy. Also, and most importantly, no one talks about Minnesota as a failure. What people remember is the success he has had in Boston. The mold has been set. Team up with superstars and resurrect a proud franchise. Success in the end, is what matters. Essentially, the only way for Cleveland to keep Lebron is to fire Brown and bring in one of the other several free agent superstars available, but that might not be enough for a frustrated James.

So what would he do and where would he go? If he truly is frustrated with Cleveland, what he will do is start talking with another free agent. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemaire, and Dirk Nowitzki are all available. He will talk with a superstar and make plans to join the same team. As for where he would go, there are many guesses but the leading candidates seem to be New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, or Los Angeles (Clippers). You can go ahead and throw Los Angeles out of the mix. No one says, "I want to win a championship, I'm going to be a Clipper!" LA was not the worst team last season, but the stigma of the Clippers still hangs over the team. Imagine if Adrian Peterson left Minnesota to become a Detroit Lion. Even the Kobe/Lebron rivalry possibility would not be enough to bring in Lebron.

A lot of people see Chicago as a likely possibility because they are already a playoff team and have the best chance of winning a championship quickly. If Lebron truly feels that coaching is what's missing in Cleveland, he is not going to go to Chicago where they have no coach. Also, while he does want a championship he is still 25. He still wants to build a team and still has time to do it. This takes both Chicago and Miami off the list. Miami won a championship behind Wade and was the fifth ranked team in the playoffs this season. If he still has not won by the time he is 30 he may consider going to a playoff team, but I do not think he is that desperate yet.

This leaves New York and New Jersey. How do such lousy teams make sense? New Jersey is a contender because they can win the draft lottery. Bringing in Lebron, Bosh, and John Wall (probable first overall pick) changes the team completely. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov is also a big spender who will do what it takes to make New Jersey a contender. The major contender, however, is New York. The Knicks already have coach Mike D'Antoni, a well respected NBA coach who was a constant contender in the west with Phoenix. Of all the coaches of all the teams Lebron is considering at the moment, he is the best. Cleveland will need to find someone as notable as D'Antoni to have any chance. Heading to New York, the market, the city, and the franchise will certainly be enticing. Mix in the head coach and the second superstar that Lebron would want to bring with him, and you already have a brand new New York team with the money to bring in whoever else the team may be missing. New York offers a big city, a big market, a good coach, and a franchise to build. All of these are things Lebron James will be looking for.

Of all the possibilities, New York makes the most sense. Of course, should New Jersey win the draft lottery, you cannot count them out. I believe both are more likely than Lebron staying in Cleveland. Of course, free agency does not start until July 1 so we will have to wait and see, assuming we can stomach the ridiculous amount of media attention that will follow his every move for the next two months.

Gilbert Arenas Gets Off Easy, Wizards Stuck

Gilbert Arenas appeared in court Friday and received a sentence of 30 days in a halfway house and 2 years probation for his gun charge. I'm not one of those people who complains about the different rules for the rich, but in the wake of this charge when you look at the questions surrounding it and the effects it will have, I'm having a hard time seeing how Arenas is being punished more than the Wizards.

Arenas was facing a felony charge for his little gun prank. Even with a guilty plea, the district attorney's office presented a case for jail time. This was a serious charge. The judge remarked that while Arenas was very irresponsible, he showed genuine remorse and was unlikely to be a repeat offender. Being a celebrity in this case helped him because Arenas is going to be under the microscope for quite sometime. He won't be able to carry a water pistol without every person in America seeing four different camera shots, but I'm really not sure about the 'genuine remorse.' Before charges were brought against him it became a team joke. Arenas even pretended to shoot his teammates during a pregame pump up. So while some reports say that Javaris Crittenton pulled his own gun and cocked it in response to Arenas' prank, he was only remorseful after he got in trouble. It's easy to appear remorseful when every television station in America runs quotes and interviews of you saying you're sorry, but he really didn't seem to act that way.

As a celebrity, you can't dismiss how much money he's losing because of his season suspension and cancelled endorsements. One figure says he's lost $7.4 million so far. That's a fair point, but Arenas is already a multi-millionaire. The richer you get, the less that money really means. Think about it. Whatever percentage of Arenas' salary that makes up, take a proportional amount out of your salary and you're in trouble. Arenas isn't going to be sitting at the old halfway house wondering how he will manage to make ends meet. With celebrities, monetary penalties really don't mean that much. That makes it imperative that they receive some other form of punishment because this is the only thing that really affects them.

One example you should consider is that of Plaxico Burress. Burress accidentally shot himself at a night club with his gun, was arrested, and accepted a plea deal for two years in prison. Arenas brought four guns into DC which is against DC's gun control laws and received 30 days in a halfway house. One got shot and is now in prison, the other thought it was no big deal and is headed to a halfway house. Doesn't it seem like the justice system got it wrong here?

Even if you feel Arenas' punishment is fair, the punishment for the Wizards is entirely unfair. Their star player is out for the season and too expensive to buy out. His trade value has understandably dropped and the Wizards can't really begin to rebuild their team until they deal with the giant elephant in the room. Best case scenario would be to void Arenas' contract, but this is not a realistic solution. Arenas is already suspended for the season and will be out of the halfway house before training camp this summer so the Wizards can't argue that his sentence will affect his ability to train and play. There of course is the morals clause of his contract. Yes, the NBA has a morals clause, but the fact that it's in the NBA is evidence enough of how useless it is. It's not even worth discussing.

The Wizards felt out interest for Arenas before this little gun incident and the prospects weren't encouraging. No one wanted an injury prone, unproven leader with an obscene contract. Add convicted felon to that resume and you could be describing a lot of NBA stars, but specifically for Arenas it's not promising that the Wizards will get any where near his value. Buying out Arenas, however, will cost the team $80 million. If Arenas is really desperate to get back on the court and leave Washington, which he hinted he would like to do, he may void a portion of that amount, but it still means a significant amount of money for a team poised for a massive rebuild.

So out of this entire situation, who really got the short end of the stick, Arenas who received no jail time for a gun felony or the Wizards who can't move forward without paying Arenas $80 million, trading for nothing, or rebuilding around a player who has proven he doesn't have enough to get this team over the threshold? New owner Ted Leonsis probably acquired the Wizards with the idea of rebuilding much the same way he did with the Capitals. The team already unloaded all their expensive talent at the deadline and acquired several prospects. Add a top draft pick the team can begin building around and this young team will be poised for future success. With this hanging over the team's head, however, it is difficult to start that process. Somehow after this big mess, Arenas still essentially holds the upper hand between himself and the Wizards and that's just not fair.

Christmas Day Sports

On Christmas Day fans saw one NFL game and five NBA games including a huge matchup between the LA Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers. Basketball has had games on Christmas day for several years now, but not everyone is a fan. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy was clearly not happy about his team playing on Dec. 25 sayng:

"I would rather not play on Christmas. This is a day to spend with your family. The league has been good to all of us in terms of what we get out of these TV games, so it would sound a little disingenuous to complain too much. But if I had my way, we'd take a five-day Christmas break....I think we get a little carried away with ourselves with sports thinking we're more important than everything else. But that's the way it is. 'There's nothing more important than the NBA on Christmas Day'....I won't watch one second of the other four games. I have no interest. That's not great advertisement for the league, but I actually feel sorry for people who have nothing to do on Christmas Day other than watch an NBA game."

And coach Van Gundy is absolutely right. The desire to play on Christmas day I believe stems from the Thanksgiving football tradition. Football isn't just something to watch that day, but has actually become a part of Thanksgiving to many people. While being away from your family must be hard for the players, coaches, and personnel who make such games possible, it is not a religious holiday. Christmas is religious and the last thing on my mind that day is 'who's playing?" While I understand the desire to try and tap into the huge popularity the NFL enjoys from Thanksgiving games, how low are both leagues willing to go? Neither league is struggling for money or ratings. What do they lose by giving teams the day off? I really don't think the fans will complain if they have to wait until December 26 to watch their team again.

I have to wonder who's going to these games? The stadiums are packed and my guess is that the ratings must be pretty high if the NBA is pushing five games, but I can't imagine asking my family to go to a basketball or football game on Christmas day. While it does seem like there are a lot of people with nothing better to do that day, I'm sure they could find something to tide them over for 24 hours. At some point you have to ask what's more important? Does the NBA have to give these people a game to go to or can they allow people like Van Gundy to spend Christmas with his wife and four children? People can live a day without basketball. There's an entire offseason and somehow we manage to avoid the apocalypse every year during that time.

The day after Christmas I heard an interview with Washington Capitals winger Matt Bradley. Earlier this month, his wife gave birth to their first child. In the NHL, there were no games on Dec. 24 or 25 and he was talking about how special it was to spend time with his son on his first Christmas. Those moments are ultimately more important than the ratings you get on Christmas Day.