Offseason Questions for the Capitals

The Washington Capitals find themselves cleaning out their lockers and heading into the offseason much earlier than they would have hoped this year. Now they face the numerous questions regarding coaches, free agents, and how they expect to go farther in the playoffs next season. Here are the most important questions facing this team in the offseason.

Coach: In the wake of their improbable first round upset, management hinted that changes would be coming this offseason. Immediately, people assumed this meant head coach Bruce Boudreau. Owner Ted Leonsis and general manager George McPhee have already put those rumors to rest. "He's a really good coach," McPhee said, "He's going to be here a really long time. No need to raise those issues because he's not going anywhere." Talking about coaching changes are certainly premature at this point, but if the Caps have an early exit next season it will be an option that is at least discussed.

Nicklas Backstrom: The biggest priority for the Caps heading into the offseason is Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom's entry level contract expired at the end of this season and he is now a restricted free agent. Backstrom seems happy in Washington and has never indicated he is considering going elsewhere, and as the Caps have the right to make him an offer I expect they will do whatever it takes to keep him. I would be surprised if signing him is a major issue, but what the Caps have to pay him will be. Make no mistake, they will pay him what he wants. The problem is that his previous contract was entry level and since then he has established himself as a superstar. Signing him now is going to cost a significant amount of money and this could impact who the Caps try to sign when free agency begins. Listed below are the other restricted and unrestricted free agents on the Caps' roster:

Restricted- Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Fleischmann, Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Jeff Schultz, Michal Neuvirth
Unrestricted- Brendan Morrison, Scott Walker, Quintin Laing, Eric Belanger, Alexandre Giroux, Boyd Kane, Kyle Wilson, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, Joe Corvo, Jose Theodore

Goalies: The big name here of course is Jose Theodore, who I am not expecting the Caps to sign. While he has been a tremendous asset to the team and has put together two impressive regular seasons, he has not been a reliable playoff goalie. Twice he has gone in as the starter and failed both times to last two full games. Boudreau told reporters prior to the series against Montreal that Theodore would not have a short leash this season and he was still pulled early in game two. While confidence in him is not high, Boudreau has shown a lot of confidence in young Michal Neuvirth. When Varlamov went down with injury in the regular season, it was expected that Theodore would take over as the primary goalie. Boudreau, however, started Neuvirth in 16 games. He will be a major priority for the team to sign this summer. Theodore will walk and the money the team will save from his contract will go to Backstrom.

Defense: Defense really needs to be a focus for the Caps this offseason. They were ranked 1st offensively and 16th defensively. More importantly they were ranked 25th on the penalty kill. As good as they were, the Caps had to play from behind constantly this season. While they were able to overcome numerous deficits in the regular season, it really hurt them in the playoffs. The first thing the team needs to do is talk to Mike Green. Last year he was widely criticized for his lack of conditioning in the playoffs and he spent the entire offseason trying to get in better shape. Now he needs to work on his defensive game. It is the only thing holding him back, but it is a serious problem since he is a DEFENSEman. His offensive skill does not excuse his poor defensive play. Regarding the team's free agents, they will not allow Jeff Schultz, who won the plus-minus award this season and seems to be finally coming into his own, to leave. They will also attempt to re-sign Shaone Morrisonn, one of the few defensive minded defensemenon the team. Milan Jurcina will not be back. As the team already traded him once, I do not think there will be much urgency to sign him again, especially with the emergence of Jon Carlson. Joe Corvo looked tremendous in the postseason, but signing him will be expensive and my guess would be that the team let's him go. My biggest fear regarding defense will be that the team decides to rely solely on the emergence of Carlson, Tyler Sloan, and Karl Alzner and do not attempt to sign a more defensive player. If they cannot sign Shaone Morrisonn, then they MUST sign a defensive minded defenseman to help the Caps keep the puck out of the net.

Forwards: The biggest question besides Nicklas Backstrom is not actually a free agent, but is Alexander Semin. Semin's contract was set to expire at the end of this season, but he signed a one year extension. Semin has the talent to be a top line left winger on most NHL teams, but happens to be on the same team as the best left winger in the world. Being that talented, he will expect a large contract. With the other superstars on the team, he might be just too expensive. Now that the team is fully focused on building for the playoffs, Semin's failure to produce in the postseason makes him expendable. The fact that he only signed for an extra year tells me the writing is on the wall and he will part ways with the Caps after the 2010-11 season. The Caps will not allow a player of Semin's calibur to leave without getting something in return and I will expect an offseason or a deadline trade. If the team acquires a notable left wing this summer, then Semin's tenure in DC will end sometime soon. More likely, however, is that the team will wait until the trade deadline to deal Semin when teams are more desperate for scoring talent. I felt Brendan Morrison was a fantastic free agent signing last summer and will be sorry to see him leave, but the Caps will not pursue him this offseason. Morrison is a second line caliber forward, but was a healthy scratch frequently in the regular season and twice in the team's seven playoff games. This tells me that the team will not sign him and signing Eric Belanger will become very important. He seems to enjoy playing in DC, saying after the team's improbable comeback against Chicago "We didn't do that in Minnesota" so my guess would be that he will be back in DC.

The Caps will try desperately to trade Michael Nylander again, but I doubt any team will be willing to pick up his large contract. Lending him out so that he does not contribute to the salary cap as they did this year is the most likely scenario for 2010-11 which is the last year of his contract. Boyd Kane is 31 and unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level, so unless the team wants to sign him for Hershey, he will be gone. The team is likely to sign Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, and Tomas Fleischmann, especially Fehr after his breakout season this year and these players seem unlikely to go anywhere else. Scott Walker was a deadline deal and I expect the Caps will not pursue him unless they want him to replace Jon Erskine (fingers crossed) as the team's fighter. As for the rest, the Caps will definitely want to sign Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, and Kyle Wilson. The only one I think could leave would be Giroux who has become an AHL superstar. Signing a big contract to 28 year old minor league player who rarely gets called up to Washington is not the direction the team will want to go in. Either he accepts a minor league, low contract, or he'll have to find himself another team.

Likely Lineup: I expect most of the free agents on the Caps' current roster that they pursue will sign with Washington again. A championship contender offering a chance to play with the best player in the world makes recruiting a lot easier, especially when most of these players developed in Hershey and Washington together. As for bringing in players, my best guess is that the team will pursue a center to replace Brendan Morrison and to help on the penalty kill, a left wing to replace Semin and provide an offensive threat both in the regular season and the playoffs, and a defenseman because even the Caps cannot ignore their defensive woes this season (I hope). If they are about to hand the reins over to Varlamov and Neuvirth, they will need will more help on the blue line. Unless the team expects Karl Alzner to turn into Chris Pronger this offseason, a defensive minded defenseman is a must. So here is my projected lineup for October without specific guesses as to what free agents the Caps bring in:

1st line: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble
2nd line: Semin (gone by trade deadline), Morrison's replacement, Laich
3rd line: Semin's replacement, Belanger, Fehr
4th line: Chimera, Steckle, Fleischmann

Defense Pairings: Green and Schultz, Carlson and Poti, Morrisonn and Sloan or Corvo's replacement (hopefully)

Goalies: Varlamov, Neuvirth

Other Roster Players: Bradley, Gordon, Laing, Erskine, Alzner

What a Difference Two Games Make...

Two games into Washington's playoff matchup and you can already throw out all of the analysis and predictions regarding what would happen in this series. Montreal came into the playoffs with the 23rd ranked offense but has managed 8 goals in two games against the Capitals and only two have come from their 2nd ranked power play. Many Washington sports analysts expected the Capitals to advance in five games while many Motnreal sports analysts expected the Capitals in advance in four. Yet Montreal stunned the best team in the NHL in game one in overtime and looked in control for most of game two. Things have gotten off to a weird start.

Montreal goaltender Jaroslav Halak looked fantastic in his first playoff start stopping 45 of 47 shots and leading the Canadiens to an improbable game one win. In game two, however, he seemed to struggle allowing 5 goals on just 37 shots. Alexander Ovechkin even stated he saw Halak's arm shaking late in the game. With Washington's potent offense, Halak has to be better. If we see another 6 goal game for the Capitals, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carey Price in for game four.

The biggest surprise for Montreal has to be their offense. They averaged 2.65 goals per game during the regular season but have managed 8 so far in just two games. Heading into the playoffs, I thought the Canadiens' strategy would be to try the weather the storm, agitate and try to force penalties, and win through powerplays and counter attacks. Now, however, Montreal is proving that their offense can win on its own. That could spell trouble for the Capitals who are having some troubles in goal and on defense.

Game one had to be absolutely baffling for the Washington Capitals. Looking at this series it was believed their two biggest weaknesses were their goaltending and 25th ranked penalty kill matching against the second best power play. If you had told me that the Capitals would get great goaltending and allow 1 power play goal in 4 opportunities in game one, I would have thought "mission accomplished." Not so. Despite Theodore's heroics, the Capitals dropped game one in overtime. Then, the Capitals found themselves down 0-2 twelve minutes into game two after allowing only 2 shots. To allow only 2 shots in 8 minutes of play is impressive, but it is meaningless if the other team scores on those 2 shots. Now Boudreau has a choice to make for game 3. Theodore may have had a bad game, but he has played great since January going 20-0-3. Would starting Semyon Varlamov, who had an average game after replacing Theodore, really be the right move? Short answer, yes. You have to go with the goalie that wins and Varlamov won the game. It may not have been pretty, but he got the job done. Putting Theodore back in for game three in a city he has not played well in would be a disaster. What would happen if Theodore started and played terribly? Boudreau would be lambasted over the decision and the team would find itself in a 2-1 playoff deficit with their confidence shaken. Varlamov's first NHL start was at Montreal and he allowed only 1 goal. Starting Theodore would have long term playoff implications as well. Whether Boudreau will confess to it or not, I believe he came into these playoffs expecting to use both goalies. Analysts may not like it, but he has done it for years in the AHL with success. If Theodore starts tonight and does not play well, that ship has sailed. He can't play Theodore again in Montreal period, even if Varlamov doesn't play well either. If Varlamov plays, Boudreau at least has the option of playing Theodore again. I expect Boudreau will play Varlamov until he has a bad game and then go back to Theodore as he did for most of the regular season. It's a risk, but with this system the Capitals managed the best record in the league and the most dominant regular season in recent memory.

Defense for the Capitals is also a major issue. Remember when I said maybe Jon Carlson should sit? Scratch that. He's been one of, if not the best, defenseman for the Capitals so far in the playoffs. The worst? Mike Green. It's not because he has 0 points so far, it's because defensively Green has downright stunk. You can blame Green for at least 2 of Montreal's 5 goals in game two. If Green isn't producing offensively it really doesn't hurt the team that much. They can score without him. When a defenseman plays poorly defensively, however, it always hurts the team. What we've seen from Green so far has been unacceptable. Boudreau already took him off the powerplay as a message, but Boudreau has to make sure Green is thinking defense first, offense second.

Tonight another major factor will be introduced into the series. Montreal's stadium, the Bell Centre, provides probably the biggest home ice advantage in the NHL. Hockey is king and Montreal has won more Stanley Cups than any other team in the NHL and as a result the Canadiens have developed quite a following. It will be interesting to see how both teams react to the crowd tonight especially in such a critical game.

The Capitals were the better team in game one for the first 40 minutes and in game two for the last 20 minutes and 30 seconds. This team knows they can be the better team for 60 minutes so let's hope we start to see that tonight.