Offseason Questions for the Capitals

The Washington Capitals find themselves cleaning out their lockers and heading into the offseason much earlier than they would have hoped this year. Now they face the numerous questions regarding coaches, free agents, and how they expect to go farther in the playoffs next season. Here are the most important questions facing this team in the offseason.

Coach: In the wake of their improbable first round upset, management hinted that changes would be coming this offseason. Immediately, people assumed this meant head coach Bruce Boudreau. Owner Ted Leonsis and general manager George McPhee have already put those rumors to rest. "He's a really good coach," McPhee said, "He's going to be here a really long time. No need to raise those issues because he's not going anywhere." Talking about coaching changes are certainly premature at this point, but if the Caps have an early exit next season it will be an option that is at least discussed.

Nicklas Backstrom: The biggest priority for the Caps heading into the offseason is Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom's entry level contract expired at the end of this season and he is now a restricted free agent. Backstrom seems happy in Washington and has never indicated he is considering going elsewhere, and as the Caps have the right to make him an offer I expect they will do whatever it takes to keep him. I would be surprised if signing him is a major issue, but what the Caps have to pay him will be. Make no mistake, they will pay him what he wants. The problem is that his previous contract was entry level and since then he has established himself as a superstar. Signing him now is going to cost a significant amount of money and this could impact who the Caps try to sign when free agency begins. Listed below are the other restricted and unrestricted free agents on the Caps' roster:

Restricted- Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Fleischmann, Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Jeff Schultz, Michal Neuvirth
Unrestricted- Brendan Morrison, Scott Walker, Quintin Laing, Eric Belanger, Alexandre Giroux, Boyd Kane, Kyle Wilson, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, Joe Corvo, Jose Theodore

Goalies: The big name here of course is Jose Theodore, who I am not expecting the Caps to sign. While he has been a tremendous asset to the team and has put together two impressive regular seasons, he has not been a reliable playoff goalie. Twice he has gone in as the starter and failed both times to last two full games. Boudreau told reporters prior to the series against Montreal that Theodore would not have a short leash this season and he was still pulled early in game two. While confidence in him is not high, Boudreau has shown a lot of confidence in young Michal Neuvirth. When Varlamov went down with injury in the regular season, it was expected that Theodore would take over as the primary goalie. Boudreau, however, started Neuvirth in 16 games. He will be a major priority for the team to sign this summer. Theodore will walk and the money the team will save from his contract will go to Backstrom.

Defense: Defense really needs to be a focus for the Caps this offseason. They were ranked 1st offensively and 16th defensively. More importantly they were ranked 25th on the penalty kill. As good as they were, the Caps had to play from behind constantly this season. While they were able to overcome numerous deficits in the regular season, it really hurt them in the playoffs. The first thing the team needs to do is talk to Mike Green. Last year he was widely criticized for his lack of conditioning in the playoffs and he spent the entire offseason trying to get in better shape. Now he needs to work on his defensive game. It is the only thing holding him back, but it is a serious problem since he is a DEFENSEman. His offensive skill does not excuse his poor defensive play. Regarding the team's free agents, they will not allow Jeff Schultz, who won the plus-minus award this season and seems to be finally coming into his own, to leave. They will also attempt to re-sign Shaone Morrisonn, one of the few defensive minded defensemenon the team. Milan Jurcina will not be back. As the team already traded him once, I do not think there will be much urgency to sign him again, especially with the emergence of Jon Carlson. Joe Corvo looked tremendous in the postseason, but signing him will be expensive and my guess would be that the team let's him go. My biggest fear regarding defense will be that the team decides to rely solely on the emergence of Carlson, Tyler Sloan, and Karl Alzner and do not attempt to sign a more defensive player. If they cannot sign Shaone Morrisonn, then they MUST sign a defensive minded defenseman to help the Caps keep the puck out of the net.

Forwards: The biggest question besides Nicklas Backstrom is not actually a free agent, but is Alexander Semin. Semin's contract was set to expire at the end of this season, but he signed a one year extension. Semin has the talent to be a top line left winger on most NHL teams, but happens to be on the same team as the best left winger in the world. Being that talented, he will expect a large contract. With the other superstars on the team, he might be just too expensive. Now that the team is fully focused on building for the playoffs, Semin's failure to produce in the postseason makes him expendable. The fact that he only signed for an extra year tells me the writing is on the wall and he will part ways with the Caps after the 2010-11 season. The Caps will not allow a player of Semin's calibur to leave without getting something in return and I will expect an offseason or a deadline trade. If the team acquires a notable left wing this summer, then Semin's tenure in DC will end sometime soon. More likely, however, is that the team will wait until the trade deadline to deal Semin when teams are more desperate for scoring talent. I felt Brendan Morrison was a fantastic free agent signing last summer and will be sorry to see him leave, but the Caps will not pursue him this offseason. Morrison is a second line caliber forward, but was a healthy scratch frequently in the regular season and twice in the team's seven playoff games. This tells me that the team will not sign him and signing Eric Belanger will become very important. He seems to enjoy playing in DC, saying after the team's improbable comeback against Chicago "We didn't do that in Minnesota" so my guess would be that he will be back in DC.

The Caps will try desperately to trade Michael Nylander again, but I doubt any team will be willing to pick up his large contract. Lending him out so that he does not contribute to the salary cap as they did this year is the most likely scenario for 2010-11 which is the last year of his contract. Boyd Kane is 31 and unlikely to make an impact at the NHL level, so unless the team wants to sign him for Hershey, he will be gone. The team is likely to sign Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, and Tomas Fleischmann, especially Fehr after his breakout season this year and these players seem unlikely to go anywhere else. Scott Walker was a deadline deal and I expect the Caps will not pursue him unless they want him to replace Jon Erskine (fingers crossed) as the team's fighter. As for the rest, the Caps will definitely want to sign Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, and Kyle Wilson. The only one I think could leave would be Giroux who has become an AHL superstar. Signing a big contract to 28 year old minor league player who rarely gets called up to Washington is not the direction the team will want to go in. Either he accepts a minor league, low contract, or he'll have to find himself another team.

Likely Lineup: I expect most of the free agents on the Caps' current roster that they pursue will sign with Washington again. A championship contender offering a chance to play with the best player in the world makes recruiting a lot easier, especially when most of these players developed in Hershey and Washington together. As for bringing in players, my best guess is that the team will pursue a center to replace Brendan Morrison and to help on the penalty kill, a left wing to replace Semin and provide an offensive threat both in the regular season and the playoffs, and a defenseman because even the Caps cannot ignore their defensive woes this season (I hope). If they are about to hand the reins over to Varlamov and Neuvirth, they will need will more help on the blue line. Unless the team expects Karl Alzner to turn into Chris Pronger this offseason, a defensive minded defenseman is a must. So here is my projected lineup for October without specific guesses as to what free agents the Caps bring in:

1st line: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble
2nd line: Semin (gone by trade deadline), Morrison's replacement, Laich
3rd line: Semin's replacement, Belanger, Fehr
4th line: Chimera, Steckle, Fleischmann

Defense Pairings: Green and Schultz, Carlson and Poti, Morrisonn and Sloan or Corvo's replacement (hopefully)

Goalies: Varlamov, Neuvirth

Other Roster Players: Bradley, Gordon, Laing, Erskine, Alzner

Sometimes I Hate Being Right, Game 7 and Series Reaction

I may not have been right about game 7, which I thought the Caps would win, but I was definitely right about the importance of game 1 and 2. Before the series began I said that if Washington lost either game 1 or 2 they would not challenge for the Cup this year. I was not expecting to be that right, but I was right. The reason I said that is because the Capitals were the best team in the league and Montreal was the worst team in the playoffs in either conference. Sometimes top seeds lose at home to bottom seeds, but in a series with a team that has been so dominant this could not be the case. If the Caps could not win their first two games at home against such an outmatched opponent, then I felt they were not mentally prepared for a deep playoff run. They lost game 1 and now find themselves out in the first round. I'm not trying to take anything away from what Montreal accomplished, it was a tremendous upset, but if the Capitals were firing on all cylinders and playing to their full potential then this never would have happened. Montreal just doesn't stack up.

What this series also showed was the importance of finishing a team off when you have the chance. Montreal had their backs against the ropes in game 5 and neither team played particularly well. The third period was especially terrible as the Caps played with zero sense of urgency, knowing they still had a game 6 and 7 to close it out. Game 5 should have been an easy win. Had they stepped up, we would be talking about game 1 against Philadelphia right now instead of wondering what if.

Jaroslav Halak, of course, played incredible...for two games. People should study this series as an example of why you win when you have the chance. The Caps didn't seem to have any trouble with Halak in the beginning of the series as he was pulled in game 3 and did not even play in game 4. He only got hot in game 6 and 7. When goalies gain confidence, they can go on these kind of streaks even if the goalie himself is not a superstar talent. I'm not saying Halak is not a great goalie, I'm just merely pointing out that sometimes goalies can overachieve in the playoffs and then fall off next season (anybody remember JS Gigeure?). Whether Halak can continue playing at this level remains to be seen.

Game 7 itself got off to a great start. Again, as in game 6, the Caps came out and dominated the play. Alexander Semin had a great opportunity in the first period to take the lead and end his scoreless streak. In a 3 on 1 opportunity Brooks Laich skated on the left and chipped it over to Semin passed a helpless Halak. Semin had an empty net and tried to deflect the pass in, but it hit the post. Frustrating, but it still semmed as if the Caps were in control until late in the period when Mike Green stepped in. Now I like Green, he has superstar talent. This postseason, however, he has been the worst player on the team. Some will argue that Semin was worse, but Semin was not detracting from the team in his frustration. He led the league in shots in the postseason and it really seemed like it was only a matter of time before he put one in. The bounces just were not going his way. Green was clearly frustrated with his inability to score and it really affected his play. He was widely criticized after game 2 when he was directly responsible for 2 of Montreal's 5 goals. His poor defensive play really affected the team. His frustration also put him into penalty trouble as he had 6 penalties in the series including 2 in game 7.

Towards the end of the first period during 4 on 4 play, Green had the puck and skated into the offensive zone. He lost the puck and it trickled to his right. Standing in front of him away from the puck was defenseman Andrei Markov. Instead of going directly for the puck Green skated forward, cross checked Markov, then turned and got the puck. It was an obvious penalty and a big time mistake. Montreal's offense is at its best when its on the powerplay and a 4 on 3 penalty gave them a lot of room to work with. Marc-Andre Bergeron made the Caps pay and Washington went into the locker room down 0-1 after dominating the period. In the third period Montreal dumped the puck into the Caps' zone. Green was the closest man to it, but did not seem to be in much of a hurry to grab the puck. Seeing that Green was taking his time, Hal Gill sprinted after it, beat him there, and chipped it behind Green to a waiting Dominic Moore who beat a helpless Semyon Varlamov to give Montreal a 2-0 lead. This was an easy mistake to avoid and one the Caps could not afford.

While Green remains one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, his defensive play constantly comes into question. It has kept him out of the all star game, off the Canadian Olympic team, and has cost him a Norris trophy. The fact that he puts so many points on the board shows me he has great offensive instincts. He knows where the puck is going and where he needs to be. He has yet to translate those instincts to his defensive play. If he knows where he needs to be to score, he should know where the opposing forwards are going to go. Being a defenseman, he needs to be thinking defense first, offense second. It was clear, however, that his lack of offense was weighing heavily on his mind and it really took away from his defensive play.

The most frustrating moment, perhaps of the series, came early into the third period. About 30 seconds in, Ovechkin finally managed to put one past Halak and tie the game. The goal, however, was immediately waved off by the referee who determined that Mike Knuble had interfered with Halak. Later on in the period, Montreal also had a goal waved off so it balanced out, right? Wrong. While I may be a die hard Caps fan, let me try to explain this as objectively as possible. The official rule on goalie interference according to nhl.com is "Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper's ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goaltender, inside or outside of his goal crease." So to be clear, players are allowed in the crease and contact itself does not necessarily constitute a goal being disallowed. In the Caps' goal, Knuble was in the crease next to Halak. He stood shoulder to shoulder with him (contact), Ovechkin shot, Halak went down in his stance in an attempt to block the shot, and it got passed him. Knuble's contact in no way impaired Halaks ability to defend the goal. It may have looked like Knuble's contact knocked him down, but he went down in an attempt to save the shot. Even if you felt Knuble's contact was illegal, which it was not, at best it was a 50/50 call. This is the third period in game 7 of a playoff series. You do not make game changing calls off of a 50/50 call that late in a game 7. There is no call for the "Bush Push" and there's no push off foul on Michael Jordan. Likewise, you do not disallow a goal in the third period of a game 7 because of a 50/50 call.

As for Montreal's disallowed goal, Varlamov had the puck, it was not visible, and the Montreal forward raised both arms and literally pushed Varlamov into the net. Sounds like "deliberate contact with the goaltender" to me. Watch the replay, no one could argue that it was not a deliberate push into the net. Had Ovechkin's goal been allowed, 30 seconds into the third period the score would have been tied at 1. This was a huge game changing decision, it was incorrect, and disallowing a Montreal goal that was clearly illegal does not compensate for such a terrible call.

Now, in the aftermath of a terrible upset, it's not time get drastic. Of course we are going to hear all sorts of criticism against Ovechkin and negative comparisons to Crosby and the Penguins, but let's keep things in perspective. I've already heard several criticisms against Ovechkin and the fact that he's a terrible leader and that's why the team is out. This is completely unfair. First, off, do not site the Olympics. From what I saw from team Russia, they were completely mismanaged by their coach. Just a quick example, Ovechkin played cleanup during powerplays, meaning he played in the center to screen the goalie and catch rebounds. This is a complete waste of his talent as he has the best shot in the world and you have him chipping in rebounds which any player can do. That's just a quick example, I could go on for days about why Russia's coach was laughably awful so the fact that Russia did not win a medal is more a result of their coach's terrilbe management more than it is a reflection of Ovechkin's leadership. The fact is that Ovechkin was named captain midseason and now people are using this as an excuse for the team's early exit. No one seemed to be question him in the regular season when he led the Caps to the best record in franchise history. While I will be the first one to say the Caps should have made it farther in the playoffs, to blame it on Ovechkin's leadership is unfair, especially when he was thrust the captaincy mid season with the unexpected trade of Chris Clark.

Also, to characterize Ovechkin as a Tracy McGrady or the Capitals as the next San Jose Sharks is a bit premature. While the last three postseason performances have been underwhelming, people are forgetting just how young this team is. Backstrom is 22, Eric Fehr is 24, Tomas Fleischmann is 25, Ovechkin is 24, Green is 24, Jeff Schultz is 24, and Varlamov just turned 22. Two years ago, I felt that while the Caps had home ice, Philadelphia was actually the favorite. Last season, we saw a huge rebound to defeat New York and make it to round 2. Yes with each year the expectations are raised as they should be and the Caps did not live up to those expectations this year, but this is a young team and this will be an experience that will help them in the future.

What does this series mean for the future? It really shows why the Caps need a defensive star. Granted, at the trade deadline they picked up Joe Corvo, who was fantastic in the playoffs, and Milan Jurcina, who had a sports hernia and has yet to play a game with the Caps since his return. Jon Carlson was one of the best players for the Caps in the series and looks to be a regular next season and Mike Green will undoubtedly rebound. The problem is that Corvo, Carlson, and Green are all offensive minded defensemen. The Caps' philosophy this season has been to outscore the opponent, not keep them off the board. As a result the team found themselves playing from behind a lot more often than they should have. Perhaps the game of the year was the 3 goal comeback against Pittsburgh on Super Bowl Sunday in which the Caps scored 4 straight to beat their hated rivals in OT 5-4. This kind of thing seemed to happen a lot to the Caps this season and as they kept winning, they began to develop bad habits. The Caps were either tied or losing at the end of the first period in EVERY game in the Montreal series. Coming from behind is MUCH harder in the playoffs as we all saw. The Caps also allowed a powerplay goal in 6 of the 7 games. Allowing a powerplay goal every game is not acceptable. Carlson and Karl Alzner do not provide a reasonable excuse to ignore the blue line this summer.

Finally, this series has given the Caps an important lesson in playoff hockey. The past two season have taught the Caps why it's important to start strong and this season is a lesson in finishing strong. It also is a blatant reminder of how much different playoff hockey is than regular season hockey. All important lessons for this team to keep in mind for next season's playoff push.

What a Difference Two Games Make...

Two games into Washington's playoff matchup and you can already throw out all of the analysis and predictions regarding what would happen in this series. Montreal came into the playoffs with the 23rd ranked offense but has managed 8 goals in two games against the Capitals and only two have come from their 2nd ranked power play. Many Washington sports analysts expected the Capitals to advance in five games while many Motnreal sports analysts expected the Capitals in advance in four. Yet Montreal stunned the best team in the NHL in game one in overtime and looked in control for most of game two. Things have gotten off to a weird start.

Montreal goaltender Jaroslav Halak looked fantastic in his first playoff start stopping 45 of 47 shots and leading the Canadiens to an improbable game one win. In game two, however, he seemed to struggle allowing 5 goals on just 37 shots. Alexander Ovechkin even stated he saw Halak's arm shaking late in the game. With Washington's potent offense, Halak has to be better. If we see another 6 goal game for the Capitals, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carey Price in for game four.

The biggest surprise for Montreal has to be their offense. They averaged 2.65 goals per game during the regular season but have managed 8 so far in just two games. Heading into the playoffs, I thought the Canadiens' strategy would be to try the weather the storm, agitate and try to force penalties, and win through powerplays and counter attacks. Now, however, Montreal is proving that their offense can win on its own. That could spell trouble for the Capitals who are having some troubles in goal and on defense.

Game one had to be absolutely baffling for the Washington Capitals. Looking at this series it was believed their two biggest weaknesses were their goaltending and 25th ranked penalty kill matching against the second best power play. If you had told me that the Capitals would get great goaltending and allow 1 power play goal in 4 opportunities in game one, I would have thought "mission accomplished." Not so. Despite Theodore's heroics, the Capitals dropped game one in overtime. Then, the Capitals found themselves down 0-2 twelve minutes into game two after allowing only 2 shots. To allow only 2 shots in 8 minutes of play is impressive, but it is meaningless if the other team scores on those 2 shots. Now Boudreau has a choice to make for game 3. Theodore may have had a bad game, but he has played great since January going 20-0-3. Would starting Semyon Varlamov, who had an average game after replacing Theodore, really be the right move? Short answer, yes. You have to go with the goalie that wins and Varlamov won the game. It may not have been pretty, but he got the job done. Putting Theodore back in for game three in a city he has not played well in would be a disaster. What would happen if Theodore started and played terribly? Boudreau would be lambasted over the decision and the team would find itself in a 2-1 playoff deficit with their confidence shaken. Varlamov's first NHL start was at Montreal and he allowed only 1 goal. Starting Theodore would have long term playoff implications as well. Whether Boudreau will confess to it or not, I believe he came into these playoffs expecting to use both goalies. Analysts may not like it, but he has done it for years in the AHL with success. If Theodore starts tonight and does not play well, that ship has sailed. He can't play Theodore again in Montreal period, even if Varlamov doesn't play well either. If Varlamov plays, Boudreau at least has the option of playing Theodore again. I expect Boudreau will play Varlamov until he has a bad game and then go back to Theodore as he did for most of the regular season. It's a risk, but with this system the Capitals managed the best record in the league and the most dominant regular season in recent memory.

Defense for the Capitals is also a major issue. Remember when I said maybe Jon Carlson should sit? Scratch that. He's been one of, if not the best, defenseman for the Capitals so far in the playoffs. The worst? Mike Green. It's not because he has 0 points so far, it's because defensively Green has downright stunk. You can blame Green for at least 2 of Montreal's 5 goals in game two. If Green isn't producing offensively it really doesn't hurt the team that much. They can score without him. When a defenseman plays poorly defensively, however, it always hurts the team. What we've seen from Green so far has been unacceptable. Boudreau already took him off the powerplay as a message, but Boudreau has to make sure Green is thinking defense first, offense second.

Tonight another major factor will be introduced into the series. Montreal's stadium, the Bell Centre, provides probably the biggest home ice advantage in the NHL. Hockey is king and Montreal has won more Stanley Cups than any other team in the NHL and as a result the Canadiens have developed quite a following. It will be interesting to see how both teams react to the crowd tonight especially in such a critical game.

The Capitals were the better team in game one for the first 40 minutes and in game two for the last 20 minutes and 30 seconds. This team knows they can be the better team for 60 minutes so let's hope we start to see that tonight.